Saturday, February 6, 2016

Tonight's GOP Debate is on a Saturday Night Yet There are no Conspiracy Theories

But whey have it when no one is watching? Why are they trying to hide it? Isn't it clearly to not dent Marco Rubio's momentum? Many polls in the last few days have shown him a strong second in NH.

I've already questioned whether Trump gets what he's doing here. He's campaigning in SC today-but the NH primary is on Tuesday, Mr. Trump. You need to win this convincingly before SC.

Worse of all he's not attacking Marco Rubio who is the bigger threat. Trump is much better off with a second place Cruz finish in NH than a second place Rubio finish as if Rubio does well in NH then you may soon see the Establishment lane consolidate with Kaisch, Jeb, and Christie, SOL.

Speaking of polls, despite what you're hearing, there has been no Bernie Iowa surge. It has shown neither nationally or in NH.

Bernie is obviously a huge favorite to win NH-though he tries to claim he isn't; and coyly pretend that he doesn't get any favored son status in the Granite State.

But you have seen some polls come in. The Lowell tracking poll had shown him with as much as a 33 point lead early in the week and now it's down to 14. The Boston Globe yesterday showed it down to a 9 point race and the ARG tracking poll saw it fall from 16 to 12.

As for nationally, everyone has gone wild over the Quinnipiac poll yesterday which showed it a 2 point race. But as Sam Wang says, on average-even factoring in what may be an outlier-her national lead has gone up post Iowa.

"In national surveys, Clinton went from a median of Clinton +12% (4 polls, January 22-February 1) to Clinton +16% (3 polls, February 2-4). This is noisy data, but the median change is a national 4-point bounce for Clinton. It is possible there was little change in either direction (see confidence intervals below)."

This is factoring in the Quinnipiac poll.

"It is not possible to rule out the idea that Hillary Clinton has remained level or risen in her national standings. This may be counterintuitive, considering the tone of the coverage by the press corps. Since Sanders is still in the lead in New Hampshire, my guess is that few reporters will get static for portraying an imagined surge."

"Josh Marshall is all up in arms about the Quinnipiac poll showing a near-tie. He doesn’t highlight the fact that three national polls done at nearly the same time show a wide range of results, including a result showing Clinton leading Sanders, 53% to 32%."

Actually a new Rasmuesson poll shows her up by 18 to boot.

Then you have the strange cause of Reuters which shows the race at a 6 point Hillary lead with 'Democratic adults' but 28 points among likely Democratic voters.

Right now, the GOP and the media are trying to trick Democrats into wetting the bed. All the usual stuff: She's a flawed candidate, time to call Biden, etc.

But the Dems should calm down. Hilary's team has studied the lessons of Obama 2008. First lesson is: no bedwetting.


  1. PPP is shockingly still not dialing cell phones and also not applying a likely voter screen yet. How much do you think that biases results?

    Rasmussen the same.

    Now do you think she should be concerned?

  2. So there are three polls and two show her with 20 point leads and one with a 2 piont lead and only the 2 point poll is accurate.

    In Reuters LV she has a 28 point lead. So 4 polls show her up big, one doesn't.

    The answer to your question is no. TK for asking though

  3. Why do you HIllary haters always want her to be worried anyway? Overconfidence is good. Like the Bernie bots are absurdly overconfident.

    I'm happy it is so. It's like HA Goodman thinks Bernie will win every state in the Union and then every state in the general.

    Good on him. If you guys think it will be this easy why try to convince you otherwise?