He has a path to victory we hear, but not really when you look at it.
"Don’t count out Bernie Sanders yet."
"Despite the grim outlook for the South Carolina primary Saturday, interviews with over a dozen state Democratic party chairs and local officials in Super Tuesday states suggest Sanders is within striking distance of Hillary Clinton in at least five of the 11 contests that will take place on March 1."
"He’s certain to win his home state of Vermont, where polls show he’s leading by a blowout margin. Other recent surveys show Sanders with a slight lead in Massachusetts and within a few points of Clinton in Oklahoma. In both Colorado and Minnesota, the two caucus states that are the centerpiece of his Super Tuesday strategy, Democratic party officials acknowledge the campaigns are neck and neck.
“I think it’s too close to tell,” said Ken Martin, chairman of Minnesota’s Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party and a Clinton supporter. “I’ve worked on a lot of presidential campaigns over the years. What will happen here in Minnesota will be dictated by what happens in these early states.”
"A solid performance in the 11 states voting on March 1 could have a catalytic effect on Sanders, fueling his momentum and fundraising after a rough patch. But an across-the-board drubbing next Tuesday — on the heels of his Nevada loss and an expected loss in South Carolina — could also bury the Vermont senator and generate a partywide chorus for him to get out of the race."
"Either way, the number — and the demographic makeup — of states where Sanders defeats Clinton and the number of delegates he picks up will go a long way toward shaping the post-Super Tuesday narrative."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/bernie-bears-down-for-super-tuesday-surprise-219761#ixzz41DokuV7D
I don't think the picture is very bright for Bernie after Super Tuesday. It's true in theory that he could win 5 of 11 states.
This may well sound reasonably impressive. Until you remember that it's not a contest for who wins the most states but who wins the most delegates. Even if Bernie were to win Massachusetts, the Minnesota and Colorado caucuses, and Oklahoma he will still end up getting beat by 100 delegates in Super Tuesday.
This will be a deficit he will never be able to get back. We hear a lot about how unfair the Dem super delegate system is.
Reince Priebus says unlike the Dems the GOP lets voters pick the nominee.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/02/24/preibus_unlike_the_democrats_were_going_to_let_the_voters_decide_our_nominee.html
Couple of observations:
"Don’t count out Bernie Sanders yet."
"Despite the grim outlook for the South Carolina primary Saturday, interviews with over a dozen state Democratic party chairs and local officials in Super Tuesday states suggest Sanders is within striking distance of Hillary Clinton in at least five of the 11 contests that will take place on March 1."
"He’s certain to win his home state of Vermont, where polls show he’s leading by a blowout margin. Other recent surveys show Sanders with a slight lead in Massachusetts and within a few points of Clinton in Oklahoma. In both Colorado and Minnesota, the two caucus states that are the centerpiece of his Super Tuesday strategy, Democratic party officials acknowledge the campaigns are neck and neck.
“I think it’s too close to tell,” said Ken Martin, chairman of Minnesota’s Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party and a Clinton supporter. “I’ve worked on a lot of presidential campaigns over the years. What will happen here in Minnesota will be dictated by what happens in these early states.”
"A solid performance in the 11 states voting on March 1 could have a catalytic effect on Sanders, fueling his momentum and fundraising after a rough patch. But an across-the-board drubbing next Tuesday — on the heels of his Nevada loss and an expected loss in South Carolina — could also bury the Vermont senator and generate a partywide chorus for him to get out of the race."
"Either way, the number — and the demographic makeup — of states where Sanders defeats Clinton and the number of delegates he picks up will go a long way toward shaping the post-Super Tuesday narrative."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/bernie-bears-down-for-super-tuesday-surprise-219761#ixzz41DokuV7D
I don't think the picture is very bright for Bernie after Super Tuesday. It's true in theory that he could win 5 of 11 states.
This may well sound reasonably impressive. Until you remember that it's not a contest for who wins the most states but who wins the most delegates. Even if Bernie were to win Massachusetts, the Minnesota and Colorado caucuses, and Oklahoma he will still end up getting beat by 100 delegates in Super Tuesday.
This will be a deficit he will never be able to get back. We hear a lot about how unfair the Dem super delegate system is.
Reince Priebus says unlike the Dems the GOP lets voters pick the nominee.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/02/24/preibus_unlike_the_democrats_were_going_to_let_the_voters_decide_our_nominee.html
Couple of observations:
1. Right about now, Priebus wishes he had super delegates. He envies the Dems on every level. Just look at what happened in the Dem vs. GOP Nevada caucus and you'll see the truth: the Dem party is a strong, healthy party, where Harry Reid won the state for Hillary, and the GOP is a joke.
2. But in some ways the GOP system is even more friendly to the leader. After all, the GOP has winner take all contests.
In the Democratic primary, in theory you can drag it on forever even though you have no chance to win which Bernie earlier has threatened to do. More on that in a moment.
But even without the SDs, post March 1 HRC will have an insurmountable delegate lead.
The trouble is this. The Dems don't have winner take all but the primaries are proportional. This means that margin of victory matters.
Based on polling it's possible that he could win MA, CO, OK, and Min. Don't know that it's probable and we have had no recent polling in either Min or CO, so that's just conjecture.
True according a recent MA poll he had a 7 point lead but on another it was tied. No OK poll has shown him ahead but one did show him within 2. If we just give him all 4 of these states though here's the trouble: none of his margins of victory will be very large.
He could win all 4 but all 4 would be very tight and so he'd get just a couple more delegates than she would.
Meanwhile she has 6 Southern states where she is likely to win by 20 to 30 points. Most of these are large states. Texas is the pick of the litter and is worth 256 delegates-over 10 percent of the delegates needed to win the primary of 2382 delegates.
In the Democratic primary, in theory you can drag it on forever even though you have no chance to win which Bernie earlier has threatened to do. More on that in a moment.
But even without the SDs, post March 1 HRC will have an insurmountable delegate lead.
The trouble is this. The Dems don't have winner take all but the primaries are proportional. This means that margin of victory matters.
Based on polling it's possible that he could win MA, CO, OK, and Min. Don't know that it's probable and we have had no recent polling in either Min or CO, so that's just conjecture.
True according a recent MA poll he had a 7 point lead but on another it was tied. No OK poll has shown him ahead but one did show him within 2. If we just give him all 4 of these states though here's the trouble: none of his margins of victory will be very large.
He could win all 4 but all 4 would be very tight and so he'd get just a couple more delegates than she would.
Meanwhile she has 6 Southern states where she is likely to win by 20 to 30 points. Most of these are large states. Texas is the pick of the litter and is worth 256 delegates-over 10 percent of the delegates needed to win the primary of 2382 delegates.
According to RCP averages she currently has a 26.3 percent lead on him in Texas. So she could easily get 160 of those delegates-beat him more than 50 delegates in one state.
I did the math on each Super Tuesday state and she could easily have a 100 delegate win over him for the day even if he wins all 4 of those states he's looking at. He will get a little jump on her in Vermont-probably 20 of the 26 delegates. Vermont is unfortunately for Bernie not worth very much. But even with that she'll still have the 100 delegate win.
Again his trouble is even if he wins these 4 states he's targeting they won't be very big wins so the delegate count between him and her will be a wash even if he technically won.
At some point soon it will be obvious that while the Dems proportional system allow you to stay on for a long time he will have no path to victory looking at the delegates.
What if Trump rolls to an early victory? He could have it wrapped up in mid march-remember there are some winner take all states coming.
Does Bernie then really plan to keep the race going for three more months even though he has no route to victory while Trump sits back drinking a cocktail and hitting her with tweets about her emails and Bill's zipper problems from the 90s?
If so, Bernie will no longer to even claim to being a good Democrat with a straight face. His going on will have zero purpose but hurting her for the general.
I did the math on each Super Tuesday state and she could easily have a 100 delegate win over him for the day even if he wins all 4 of those states he's looking at. He will get a little jump on her in Vermont-probably 20 of the 26 delegates. Vermont is unfortunately for Bernie not worth very much. But even with that she'll still have the 100 delegate win.
Again his trouble is even if he wins these 4 states he's targeting they won't be very big wins so the delegate count between him and her will be a wash even if he technically won.
At some point soon it will be obvious that while the Dems proportional system allow you to stay on for a long time he will have no path to victory looking at the delegates.
What if Trump rolls to an early victory? He could have it wrapped up in mid march-remember there are some winner take all states coming.
Does Bernie then really plan to keep the race going for three more months even though he has no route to victory while Trump sits back drinking a cocktail and hitting her with tweets about her emails and Bill's zipper problems from the 90s?
If so, Bernie will no longer to even claim to being a good Democrat with a straight face. His going on will have zero purpose but hurting her for the general.
Whatever point he has made will be made by the time it becomes clear he has no path to victory. If he continues then he will be nothing but a spoiler for Donald Trump.
No comments:
Post a Comment