This is a state he needs to win. Nate Silver says to put him on pace to tie HRC in delegates he needs to win this by 11 points. Being down 5 is pretty bad news-16 points off the pace he needs.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-doesnt-need-momentum-he-needs-to-win-these-states/
In just about all the polls for Super Tuesday he is way behind what he'd need to do. For him to be down 5 points in Massachusetts with 4 days left is not where he wants to be.
http://www.wbur.org/2016/02/25/wbur-poll-trump-clinton-sanders
There was one poll that showed him up by 7, but this was mostly done before Nevada. Another subsequent poll had him tied with her. Now this one has him down by 5. Do the math on this: He leads her by less than a point in the RCP MA average.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/march1dem.html
Now Elizabeth Warren is praising Hillary's bank plan. Which will help HRC some in the state as well.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/12/07/elizabeth-warren-praises-hillary-clintons-wall-street-plan/
The trouble for him is that in the states he needs, he's tied more or less. A Wisconsin poll yesterday hows him up by 1 point. That is terrible in a state he should be leading by 13 points-to by in line for a tie in pledged delegates.
Meanwhile in the states she needs, she is simply lapping him. A new poll in SC shows her with a 5o point lead.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/south-carolina-democratic/
http://newsstand.clemson.edu/mediarelations/clemson-university-palmetto-poll-democratic-primary-summary/
In Florida she has a 26 point lead. Bernie-per Nate-needs to hold her to an 8 point win.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_democratic_presidential_primary-3556.html
It looks like:
1. He will of course, win Vermont huge.
2. She will win her 6 Southern states huge.
3. That leaves the 4 states he's targeting-Massachusetts, Colorado caucus, the Minnesota caucus, Oklahoma.
In none of these states is their any evidence of him winning a big margin or anything close to it. Even if he wins a few then they will likely be close margins that won't give him a big win in the delegates. But she will get huge delegate wins in 2 and his Vermont big win is in a state worth just 26 delegates.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-doesnt-need-momentum-he-needs-to-win-these-states/
In just about all the polls for Super Tuesday he is way behind what he'd need to do. For him to be down 5 points in Massachusetts with 4 days left is not where he wants to be.
http://www.wbur.org/2016/02/25/wbur-poll-trump-clinton-sanders
There was one poll that showed him up by 7, but this was mostly done before Nevada. Another subsequent poll had him tied with her. Now this one has him down by 5. Do the math on this: He leads her by less than a point in the RCP MA average.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/march1dem.html
Now Elizabeth Warren is praising Hillary's bank plan. Which will help HRC some in the state as well.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/12/07/elizabeth-warren-praises-hillary-clintons-wall-street-plan/
The trouble for him is that in the states he needs, he's tied more or less. A Wisconsin poll yesterday hows him up by 1 point. That is terrible in a state he should be leading by 13 points-to by in line for a tie in pledged delegates.
Meanwhile in the states she needs, she is simply lapping him. A new poll in SC shows her with a 5o point lead.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/south-carolina-democratic/
http://newsstand.clemson.edu/mediarelations/clemson-university-palmetto-poll-democratic-primary-summary/
In Florida she has a 26 point lead. Bernie-per Nate-needs to hold her to an 8 point win.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_democratic_presidential_primary-3556.html
It looks like:
1. He will of course, win Vermont huge.
2. She will win her 6 Southern states huge.
3. That leaves the 4 states he's targeting-Massachusetts, Colorado caucus, the Minnesota caucus, Oklahoma.
In none of these states is their any evidence of him winning a big margin or anything close to it. Even if he wins a few then they will likely be close margins that won't give him a big win in the delegates. But she will get huge delegate wins in 2 and his Vermont big win is in a state worth just 26 delegates.
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