His team hasn't talked strategy too much, and this is because this campaign just like Bernie's policy proposals was never about reality.
His campaign was never about Jamil Smith's 'How will you?'
https://newrepublic.com/article/128270/bernie-sanders-wants-us-trust
Smith had predicted that without explaining this, black voters would never trust him. Well, I guess what happened in South Carolina speaks for itself in that light.
Bernie's run was always meant to be like Obama's run 'Yes we can.'
The difference is that despite Obama's soaring rhetoric, he had a very capable team that had thought things through. For one thing they always understood it's not about states or votes, it's about delegates.
Yet when Bernie's team talks best case scenario it betrays little consciousness of delegate math.
His campaign was never about Jamil Smith's 'How will you?'
https://newrepublic.com/article/128270/bernie-sanders-wants-us-trust
Smith had predicted that without explaining this, black voters would never trust him. Well, I guess what happened in South Carolina speaks for itself in that light.
Bernie's run was always meant to be like Obama's run 'Yes we can.'
The difference is that despite Obama's soaring rhetoric, he had a very capable team that had thought things through. For one thing they always understood it's not about states or votes, it's about delegates.
Yet when Bernie's team talks best case scenario it betrays little consciousness of delegate math.
Bernie Sanders’ campaign is desperately fighting to prove that Super Tuesday isn’t his final stand.
"The outlook is grim: He likely needs comfortable wins in at least five states to realistically keep pace in the delegate hunt. Coming off a deflating loss in Nevada and a thorough pummeling in South Carolina, Sanders’ brain trust views March 1 as a swinging gate that could either reveal — or effectively close off — his path to the nomination."
"It’s a trying moment that his increasingly nervous top aides have been prepared to face for months, just not so soon. His campaign wasn’t expecting national news coverage after Hillary Clinton’s 6-point Nevada win to be quite so tough on him. Nor did staffers envision the brutal, 48-point beatdown in South Carolina — where Clinton won every county by double-digits and captured over 80 percent of black voters — and its stifling effect on the Vermont senator's attempts to regain momentum."
"Their best-case Super Tuesday scenario looks like this: Of the 11 states holding Democratic contests, Sanders wins Colorado, Minnesota, Massachusetts, and Oklahoma -- four states where he’s invested in television advertising. Then he blows out Clinton in Vermont, and keeps it close in Virginia. As long as Clinton’s margins of victory in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, and Texas – states with sizable African-American populations — aren’t too overwhelming, he could march onto a trio of friendlier contests the following weekend with a credible case to make. His campaign could argue that Super Tuesday was a split decision, one that would still likely see him trailing Clinton in delegates, but not by an insurmountable margin, thanks to their proportional allocation."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/bernie-braces-for-decision-day-219944#ixzz41YTLEY8K
But why wouldn't her victories in Southern states be overwhelming? They are very similar states to SC. In the polls coming in to Saturday she had bigger leads in states like Alabama and Georgia than SC.
Secondly he could conceivably win all 4 of these states he mentions though there is no clear evidence he will. The state you would think he has the best shot at is Massachusetts. Yet the last few polls there have showed her ahead.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/02/suffolk-university-poll-has-hillary.html
But even if he wins all 4, they won't be large margins and so he won't get a huge lift in delegates.
"The outlook is grim: He likely needs comfortable wins in at least five states to realistically keep pace in the delegate hunt. Coming off a deflating loss in Nevada and a thorough pummeling in South Carolina, Sanders’ brain trust views March 1 as a swinging gate that could either reveal — or effectively close off — his path to the nomination."
"It’s a trying moment that his increasingly nervous top aides have been prepared to face for months, just not so soon. His campaign wasn’t expecting national news coverage after Hillary Clinton’s 6-point Nevada win to be quite so tough on him. Nor did staffers envision the brutal, 48-point beatdown in South Carolina — where Clinton won every county by double-digits and captured over 80 percent of black voters — and its stifling effect on the Vermont senator's attempts to regain momentum."
"Their best-case Super Tuesday scenario looks like this: Of the 11 states holding Democratic contests, Sanders wins Colorado, Minnesota, Massachusetts, and Oklahoma -- four states where he’s invested in television advertising. Then he blows out Clinton in Vermont, and keeps it close in Virginia. As long as Clinton’s margins of victory in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, and Texas – states with sizable African-American populations — aren’t too overwhelming, he could march onto a trio of friendlier contests the following weekend with a credible case to make. His campaign could argue that Super Tuesday was a split decision, one that would still likely see him trailing Clinton in delegates, but not by an insurmountable margin, thanks to their proportional allocation."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/bernie-braces-for-decision-day-219944#ixzz41YTLEY8K
But why wouldn't her victories in Southern states be overwhelming? They are very similar states to SC. In the polls coming in to Saturday she had bigger leads in states like Alabama and Georgia than SC.
Secondly he could conceivably win all 4 of these states he mentions though there is no clear evidence he will. The state you would think he has the best shot at is Massachusetts. Yet the last few polls there have showed her ahead.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/02/suffolk-university-poll-has-hillary.html
But even if he wins all 4, they won't be large margins and so he won't get a huge lift in delegates.
The Hillary team strategy of coming out of Tuesday with a 100 delegate win is likely to happen even if he wins all 4.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/28/politics/clinton-sanders-super-tuesday/
And, as we saw above, he may well not win all 4. Recently his team has been saying they don't think caucuses like Minnesota and Colorado give them an advantage as it's such a tough process to register to vote.
As I argued last night, she will effectively put this away tomorrow. The issue of Bernie winning these other 4 states is mostly symbolic. If he wins them he can claim that it was a close day-6 wins to 5.
But the delegate math is still a blowout.
On the other hand if he doesn't do so well in the 4, he may not even be able to claim that. If he loses Massachusetts he cant make an argument that is in any way plausible.
In another sign things are going well for her: she is in Massachusetts today. Think about that. You know you're doing well when you have the luxury to go to the states your opponent is most optimistic about.
Note how Bernie gave up on South Carolina last week-as he had no chance.
P.S. Hillary now has an almost 95 percent chance of winning the primary according to the betting odds.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/28/politics/clinton-sanders-super-tuesday/
And, as we saw above, he may well not win all 4. Recently his team has been saying they don't think caucuses like Minnesota and Colorado give them an advantage as it's such a tough process to register to vote.
As I argued last night, she will effectively put this away tomorrow. The issue of Bernie winning these other 4 states is mostly symbolic. If he wins them he can claim that it was a close day-6 wins to 5.
But the delegate math is still a blowout.
On the other hand if he doesn't do so well in the 4, he may not even be able to claim that. If he loses Massachusetts he cant make an argument that is in any way plausible.
In another sign things are going well for her: she is in Massachusetts today. Think about that. You know you're doing well when you have the luxury to go to the states your opponent is most optimistic about.
Note how Bernie gave up on South Carolina last week-as he had no chance.
P.S. Hillary now has an almost 95 percent chance of winning the primary according to the betting odds.
https://electionbettingodds.com/week.html
Thanks again Tom Brown for letting me know about this great site that updates the odds every 5 minutes.
For the general, she now has a 61.5 percent shot, while Trump is at 24.7 percent at winning the White House.
Thanks again Tom Brown for letting me know about this great site that updates the odds every 5 minutes.
For the general, she now has a 61.5 percent shot, while Trump is at 24.7 percent at winning the White House.
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