In Politico's piece on insider predictions today, you get an interesting divide in what these insiders say will happen in both South Carolina and Nevada.
"Yet another South Carolina Republican predicted Trump would wilt in the face of South Carolina’s rough-and-tumble politics. “If Trump can be knee-capped, this will be the beginning,” the Republican said.
"But Democrats in the state don’t think Trump can be stopped. Every South Carolina Democrat who completed the survey picked Trump to win on Saturday."
“Much to my surprise, Trump doesn't seem to be going anywhere,” said one Democrat. “He's captured the essence of voters who are simply sick and tired of the status quo. His message resonates in South Carolina much like it seems to be doing across the country.”
“The question is whether the Rubio campaign will be close enough to matter,” added another. “If Trump beats Rubio [by a two-to-one margin], then the Haley endorsement will be an embarrassing moment for the governor and her political operation. If he finishes close, she's a big winner, and we have an interesting race.”
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/insiders-predict-trump-win-in-south-carolina-clinton-in-nevada-219459#ixzz40cE6kutv
Don't get me started on Rubio. I've been repeating this point all week that Trump is asleep in not hitting Rubio harder-or even at all. Yesterday, for God's Sake he actually said 'Rubio's right, Cruz is a liar.'
The party is clearly at least trying to decide for Rubio.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-party-is-deciding-on-rubio/
Is Trump's strategy just to take down Cruz because he believes he's his only real threat? But Rubio's numbers are surging. He is a very strong third and getting way too close for Ted Cruz to feel any comfort.
So, anyway, the Dems are more optimistic about slowing down Trump than GOPers. Now in Nevada we get another interesting divide.
"In Nevada, there was a split in predicting Saturday’s Democratic caucuses: Most Democrats expressed confidence Hillary Clinton would eke out a narrow victory over Bernie Sanders based on the strength of her organization, but Republicans put their chips on the insurgent Vermont senator."
“It's going to be close and it shouldn't be, but momentum sometimes can catch up to organization,” said one Nevada Democrat. “I still think organization wins the day.”
"The majority of Nevada Republicans see Sanders as the more likely winner on Saturday, however, buoyed by momentum from his resounding victory last week in New Hampshire."
“Sanders has motivated young Hispanics to his side, and that will give him the edge,” said one Republican, who also added that the race “will be close and could break either way.”
"And another Republican cautioned that, if Clinton emerges with a disproportionate number of delegates out of the state because of superdelegates and other allocation differences, it would only inflame Sanders backers who think the deck is stacked against their candidate."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/insiders-predict-trump-win-in-south-carolina-clinton-in-nevada-219459#ixzz40cGC5Kzb
Why is this a problem now? In 2008, Hillary won Nevada by 6 points and yet Obama got more delegates. This wasn't a scandal then. It's amazing how much the rules are changed when the person in question is Hillary Clinton.
Anyway, you have to wonder why Dems are more optimistic about Trump while GOPers are more optimistic about Bernie? Could it be that these predictions are more what they'd like to see happen than what they know will in fact happen?
"Yet another South Carolina Republican predicted Trump would wilt in the face of South Carolina’s rough-and-tumble politics. “If Trump can be knee-capped, this will be the beginning,” the Republican said.
"But Democrats in the state don’t think Trump can be stopped. Every South Carolina Democrat who completed the survey picked Trump to win on Saturday."
“Much to my surprise, Trump doesn't seem to be going anywhere,” said one Democrat. “He's captured the essence of voters who are simply sick and tired of the status quo. His message resonates in South Carolina much like it seems to be doing across the country.”
“The question is whether the Rubio campaign will be close enough to matter,” added another. “If Trump beats Rubio [by a two-to-one margin], then the Haley endorsement will be an embarrassing moment for the governor and her political operation. If he finishes close, she's a big winner, and we have an interesting race.”
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/insiders-predict-trump-win-in-south-carolina-clinton-in-nevada-219459#ixzz40cE6kutv
Don't get me started on Rubio. I've been repeating this point all week that Trump is asleep in not hitting Rubio harder-or even at all. Yesterday, for God's Sake he actually said 'Rubio's right, Cruz is a liar.'
The party is clearly at least trying to decide for Rubio.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-party-is-deciding-on-rubio/
Is Trump's strategy just to take down Cruz because he believes he's his only real threat? But Rubio's numbers are surging. He is a very strong third and getting way too close for Ted Cruz to feel any comfort.
So, anyway, the Dems are more optimistic about slowing down Trump than GOPers. Now in Nevada we get another interesting divide.
"In Nevada, there was a split in predicting Saturday’s Democratic caucuses: Most Democrats expressed confidence Hillary Clinton would eke out a narrow victory over Bernie Sanders based on the strength of her organization, but Republicans put their chips on the insurgent Vermont senator."
“It's going to be close and it shouldn't be, but momentum sometimes can catch up to organization,” said one Nevada Democrat. “I still think organization wins the day.”
"The majority of Nevada Republicans see Sanders as the more likely winner on Saturday, however, buoyed by momentum from his resounding victory last week in New Hampshire."
“Sanders has motivated young Hispanics to his side, and that will give him the edge,” said one Republican, who also added that the race “will be close and could break either way.”
"And another Republican cautioned that, if Clinton emerges with a disproportionate number of delegates out of the state because of superdelegates and other allocation differences, it would only inflame Sanders backers who think the deck is stacked against their candidate."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/insiders-predict-trump-win-in-south-carolina-clinton-in-nevada-219459#ixzz40cGC5Kzb
Why is this a problem now? In 2008, Hillary won Nevada by 6 points and yet Obama got more delegates. This wasn't a scandal then. It's amazing how much the rules are changed when the person in question is Hillary Clinton.
Anyway, you have to wonder why Dems are more optimistic about Trump while GOPers are more optimistic about Bernie? Could it be that these predictions are more what they'd like to see happen than what they know will in fact happen?
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