Thursday, February 18, 2016

Jim Clyburn to Endorse Hillary Tomorrow

There are a few different things to chew on for Hillary fans. Yes, the media will be all over a Fox News national poll that has Bernie leading her by 3 points.

To be sure there is also a WSJ poll that shows her with an 11 point lead. And Nate Silver and friends always warn us that national polls are not the big thing as delegates are what counts and they are apportioned on a state by state basis. 

With that in view consider Fox also did a SC poll and this shows her up by 28 in the state.

It's clear which poll matters more. In addition, Silver's friend Harry Enten observed:

"It's of course possible that Clinton could lead by 28 in SC and be trailing nationally, but not with the crosstabs the way they are."

But here's the best news Hillary lovers could possibly want. This is the Big One. SC's Jim Clyburn is endorsing Hillary. Within SC Democratic politics, particularly SC AA politics, this is as big as it gets.

Even in 2008 he remained neutral. This is forgotten. Bill Clinton at the time blamed him-Clyburn very magnanimously didn't hold it against him-after all the guy was upset about a tough setback for his wife.

Clyburn though never went either way. This time he is. 

"South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn plans to endorse Hillary Clinton, according to one campaign source and a second Democratic source."

"Clyburn’s is one of the most coveted Democratic endorsements in South Carolina, where Clinton is currently polling better than Bernie Sanders."

"Clyburn originally intended to remain neutral through the South Carolina Democratic primary like he did in 2008. However, in recent weeks, the third-ranking Democrat in the House has indicated he might instead become involved in the race, citing pressure from immediate family members, who are Clinton supporters."

So no matter who tries to tell you the big news is that Fox national poll, the Fox SC poll and Clyburn are the relevant news.

P.S. Totally predictably the Bernie supporters are already dismissing Clyburn as the Establishment. This is the common 'artful smear' Hillary mentioned about the entire campaign. You never look at what someone says that you don't like but just say 'Well they're in the Establishment.'

It does sort of remind you of Stalnists-what matters is not what you say but what they say your motives are.

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