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Sunday, February 28, 2016

South Carolina Makes itself Heard

Bernie tried to explain his earth shattering loss last night by saying you win some, you lose some.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-dem-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/02/sanders-south-carolina-speech-219916?lo=ap_c1

True. But you don't lose South Carolina by 50 points in the Democratic primary and then win the nomination.

We knew he was going to lose but by 50 points? 

We knew he'd lose the black vote badly but by 74 points? 

Let's just be clear: if you lose the black vote by 74 points not only can you not win the nomination, you really don't deserve to.

I mean Bernie is saying there is still some magic formula with which he wins the nomination despite losing the black vote by numbers normally reserved for a Republican.

If he did that would basically split the party in half. Of course he won't' as no such formula exists. But the strategy was always to neutralize the black vote-his team knew they couldn't win it.

"Last October, Sanders's strategist suggested that the candidate only needed to win 30 percent of the black vote in the state to win the state. He appears to have barely hit half of that. FiveThirtyEight estimates that, if national numbers on demographics were to hold, Sanders would lose South Carolina by 20 points. He appears likely to underperform against that measure."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/27/heavy-black-turnout-suggests-a-very-good-night-for-hillary-clinton-in-south-carolina/

For the record, he also lost the state's white vote, 53-47. The media is shocked to realize that maybe Bernie's NH win did have something to do with geography after all.

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