There's been a lot of talk about what is 'supposed to happen' here. Jon Ralston said the Hillary team was wrong to suggest that Nevada is a largely white state.
But the real question is not the diversity of the state but the diversity of those voting in the caucus.
Nate Silver plausibly argues that Bernie needs a win here more:
"As we await more results from today’s Nevada caucuses, I’d argue Bernie Sanders needs a win more than Hillary Clinton. According to Nate’s “Bernie Benchmarks,” if the race is tied nationally, Clinton should be winning Nevada by 3 percentage points. However, so far Sanders has fallen 6 to 7 points short of those benchmarks in both Iowa and New Hampshire, so he needs to prove he can meet or exceed them in other states — a Nevada victory, even a razor-thin one, would do that."
"Using another rubric, the Cook Political Report’s Democratic delegate scorecard, Sanders would need to win roughly 19 of Nevada’s 35 pledged delegates to be “on track” to win the nomination by the barest possible delegate majority. Unlike the vote benchmarks, the delegate scorecard takes into account Clinton’s pre-existing 449-19 lead in superdelegates. If those superdelegates remain committed to their candidate of choice, Sanders would need to beat Clinton by an average of 11 points in primaries and caucuses just to erase such a deficit."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/nevada-caucus-south-carolina-primary-presidential-election-2016/?#livepress-update-20039310
Chuck Todd also makes the point that Bernie needs this state more in that it's a caucus state and he's built more for caucus states than primaries.
The returns so far tonight: we are about 50 percent in and she has a 52-48 percent lead. The real good news is that she's up strong in Cooke County. If she can continue with a 10 point lead here, she should be able to win.
David Wasserman:
So far, so good for Hillary Clinton. She’s beating Bernie Sanders 55 percent to 45 percent in Las Vegas’s Clark County, and only 16 percent of precincts are reporting there. The rest of the state is favoring Sanders, but 51 percent of those precincts have already reported."
If she can eek out her win here then she's in great shape in SC next week with Jim Clyburn's endorsement yesterday and her huge lead among black voters.
So cross your fingers Hillary lovers, some cautious optimism here.
But the real question is not the diversity of the state but the diversity of those voting in the caucus.
Nate Silver plausibly argues that Bernie needs a win here more:
"As we await more results from today’s Nevada caucuses, I’d argue Bernie Sanders needs a win more than Hillary Clinton. According to Nate’s “Bernie Benchmarks,” if the race is tied nationally, Clinton should be winning Nevada by 3 percentage points. However, so far Sanders has fallen 6 to 7 points short of those benchmarks in both Iowa and New Hampshire, so he needs to prove he can meet or exceed them in other states — a Nevada victory, even a razor-thin one, would do that."
"Using another rubric, the Cook Political Report’s Democratic delegate scorecard, Sanders would need to win roughly 19 of Nevada’s 35 pledged delegates to be “on track” to win the nomination by the barest possible delegate majority. Unlike the vote benchmarks, the delegate scorecard takes into account Clinton’s pre-existing 449-19 lead in superdelegates. If those superdelegates remain committed to their candidate of choice, Sanders would need to beat Clinton by an average of 11 points in primaries and caucuses just to erase such a deficit."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/nevada-caucus-south-carolina-primary-presidential-election-2016/?#livepress-update-20039310
Chuck Todd also makes the point that Bernie needs this state more in that it's a caucus state and he's built more for caucus states than primaries.
The returns so far tonight: we are about 50 percent in and she has a 52-48 percent lead. The real good news is that she's up strong in Cooke County. If she can continue with a 10 point lead here, she should be able to win.
David Wasserman:
So far, so good for Hillary Clinton. She’s beating Bernie Sanders 55 percent to 45 percent in Las Vegas’s Clark County, and only 16 percent of precincts are reporting there. The rest of the state is favoring Sanders, but 51 percent of those precincts have already reported."
If she can eek out her win here then she's in great shape in SC next week with Jim Clyburn's endorsement yesterday and her huge lead among black voters.
So cross your fingers Hillary lovers, some cautious optimism here.
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