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Monday, February 29, 2016

Resolved: Rubio Didn't Lay a Glove on Trump in Last Debate

Many in the media felt he had but a new CNN poll sure doesn't betray this.

It was taken between February 24 and 27 so a good portion of it is post debate.

"Nearly half of Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters now back Donald Trump, according to the results of the latest national CNN/ORC poll released Monday. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton's lead edged closer to 20 points over Bernie Sanders."

"Trump grabbed 49 percent, a full 33 points higher than Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 16 percent. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz earned 15 percent, followed by Ben Carson at 10 percent and Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 6 percent. Nearly seven in 10 — 68 percent — said they have decided on their candidate, while 32 percent said they might change their mind."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/poll-super-tuesday-2016-219948#ixzz41Yx85UuC

This poll doesn't cover the dustup over Trump's needing to do 'More research' on David Duke but I wouldn't hold my breath in waiting to see that hurt him. 

This poll also seems to throw more mud in the eye of the Trump has a low ceiling theory. What's more, Republicans prefer him on virtually all issues across the board:

"The Manhattan real-estate magnate holds wide leads over his opponents on all issues, from effectiveness at solving the United States' problems to honesty and trustworthiness. But asked whether they would support each of the Republican candidates, only 25 percent said they would "definitely" support Trump as the nominee in November, compared to 38 percent who said the same thing of Rubio and 35 percent of Cruz."

"Among Democrats, Clinton led Sanders 55 percent to 38 percent, slightly increasing her margin over the Vermont senator from the same survey in January. Roughly two-thirds of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters said they have locked in their decision."

"Regardless of their preference, 70 percent of both Republican and Democratic voters said they see Trump and Clinton winning the nomination of their respective parties."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/poll-super-tuesday-2016-219948#ixzz41YxyfF40

Hillary has her almost 20 point lead, before she blew Bernie away on Saturday. You might expect that to further raise her numbers. 

In primaries, once voters think they know who will win those undecided often jump on the winner. 

Her low point was post NH. There was that long lag of 12 days for her between getting blown out by over 20 points there and Nevada. On the Friday before Nevada a poll actually showed him ahead nationally for the first time. Her win there stemmed the bleeding and it's been up and onwards since. 

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