A lot of good signs for Hillary lovers. She no longer even has to mention the guy anymore.
But if this Suffolk poll is true, then Bernie is even more wrong than he clearly already is in saying that this campaign is just beginning.
If he is down by eight in Massachusetts, then turn out the lights, this puppy is over.
This poll was conducted between February 25 and 27-so before Hillary's 50 point SC win.
There was a poll a few weeks ago that by PPP that showed Bernie up by 7. However, since then, another showed them tied, another showed her up by 5 and this one says by 8.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ma/massachusetts_democratic_presidential_primary-3891.html
The PPP poll was conducted prior to her Nevada win. So that was at the height of whatever momentum Bernie had coming off his 22 point win in NH.
Furthermore, PPP qualifies it considerably:
But if this Suffolk poll is true, then Bernie is even more wrong than he clearly already is in saying that this campaign is just beginning.
If he is down by eight in Massachusetts, then turn out the lights, this puppy is over.
This poll was conducted between February 25 and 27-so before Hillary's 50 point SC win.
There was a poll a few weeks ago that by PPP that showed Bernie up by 7. However, since then, another showed them tied, another showed her up by 5 and this one says by 8.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ma/massachusetts_democratic_presidential_primary-3891.html
The PPP poll was conducted prior to her Nevada win. So that was at the height of whatever momentum Bernie had coming off his 22 point win in NH.
Furthermore, PPP qualifies it considerably:
Last wk we had BS up 49/42, but HRC up 53/47 w/committed voters. Bernie has lots flirting with, but not choosing him.
https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/704080556687015937
PPP actually discovered this in state after state. HRC has a strong lead in committed voters in every state.
Let's get real. I know there are people who love to tell you 'Anything can happen', but we have a pretty good idea of what will happen Tuesday on the Dem side-we also know what will happen on the GOP side. Trump will win most states, though Cruz probably takes Texas and Rubio finishes a distant third.
For the Dems, we know two things will happen:
1. Bernie wins his home state by a huge margin.
2. Hillary wins six Southern states by huge margins including Texas which is worth 256 delegates. Unfortunately for Bernie, Vermont is worth only 26 delegates.
3. She will then have a big, insurmountable lead in delegates.
4. However, there are four states Bernie thinks he's competitive in: the caucuses in Minnesota and Colorado, the Oklahoma primary, and especially Massachusetts.
5. In terms of substance, 4 really doesn't matter. Even if Bernie wins all four none of them would be by more than a couple of points and so would not make a dent into the huge delegate wins she's having in the South.
6. However, for pure symbolism, he could then say 'The Secretary won six states and I won five. It's a very competitive primary and it's going all the way to July.'
7. This will sound good though be completely meaningless. Basically it will be false but to see this you have to get that it's not about how many states you win, it's about delegates.
8. If you go by PPP's poll of those who have made up their minds, HRC leads 57-43, which suggests this might not be as close a race as Bernie presumes. There was one poll which showed it at 2 points.
https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/703746696627560448
As for Minnesota and Colorado, it has been thought these could be good states for Bernie they are less diverse states-though Colorado does have a good amount of Latinos.
But recently his team have suggested they don't see the caucuses in Colorado and Minnesota so hospitable. They made the rather counter-intuitive claim that they would have won Nevada if it weren't a caucus.
So they aren't confident of winning caucuses. So maybe that means HRC wins Minnesota and Colorado. She has the 14 point lead among decideds in OK.
That leaves Massachusetts where the last two polls have her up by 5 and 7.
Bottomline. This race will be over regardless of what happens in the Bernie Four. But it's not impossible she could win all four and he win only Vermont.
If he's able to sweep the BF or win 3 of 4 at least maybe he can plausibly claim something will change on March 15. It won't but it can buy him time maybe before the demands that he wrap it up become deafening.
But if she wins 3 or even all 4 then he might not even have the time. I think it's fair to say that if he loses in MA it will be very difficult for him to plausibly claim to have a path to victory.
Ok, one more good sign for Hillary: she is now at 94 percent in the betting markets, and over 60 percent to be President with Trump at 26.5 percent.
Meanwhile Bernie has dropped to just 4.4 percent to win the primary-he was close to 10 before the SC primary.
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