Josh Marshall frames it right:
"What's the number of times one Republican has scored dominating victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina and then gone on to lose the nomination? Exactly. Never. And this isn't some kind of special magic to one state or even group of states. Though it was disappointing against expectations, even the second place showing in Iowa confirms the general narrative. Yes, things could change. Nothing is certain in politics. But it's time to dispense with any faith-based logic that disputes the fact that Donald Trump is now the overwhelming favorite to win the Republican nomination."
"Chad, if Iowa was a great night for early Trump skeptics and New Hampshire was a terrible one, South Carolina looks about halfway in between. Trump skeptics can point out he didn’t improve on his performance from New Hampshire despite several candidates dropping out, which suggests he may indeed have a ceiling. They can also say that Marco Rubio has moved pretty clearly ahead in the “establishment lane” primary, giving Trump a major rival down the road."
"Meanwhile, Trump optimists can point to the scoreboard — two wins in three states — including one where he’s going to win a lot of delegates tonight. They can ask how soon Kasich and Bush are really going to drop out. They could say their guy is likely to win a three-way race with Rubio and Cruz both still in, even if a one-on-one race might be a problem for him. So there’s something for everyone tonight."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/nevada-caucus-south-carolina-primary-presidential-election-2016/
"Betting markets, weighing all of this information, see the Republican race thusly: Trump at about 50 percent to win the nomination, Rubio at 40 percent, and the rest of the field at 10 percent. I might quibble here and there, but that seems like basically a sound assessment. Now, let’s get back to arguing on Twitter."
"What's the number of times one Republican has scored dominating victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina and then gone on to lose the nomination? Exactly. Never. And this isn't some kind of special magic to one state or even group of states. Though it was disappointing against expectations, even the second place showing in Iowa confirms the general narrative. Yes, things could change. Nothing is certain in politics. But it's time to dispense with any faith-based logic that disputes the fact that Donald Trump is now the overwhelming favorite to win the Republican nomination."
"Overwhelming."
"The only mild caveat is that with a Bush or a McCain or a Romney, by the time these gents had established a clear string of wins they had substantial buy-in from party leaders, elected officials and donors - something Trump still clearly lacks. But that only gets you so far. He's the clear favorite among GOP primary voters. And in case you're thinking, well, not the majority, just about a third of GOP primary voters - well, no one ever gets 50% or 60% while you're still in a contested race. It doesn't work that way."
"If he doesn't secure the nomination, it is difficult - barring some big changes - that another candidate does secure a majority."
"To be clear, I'm not making a prediction. Things could change. My point is that there are many people in and out of the GOP who still believe Trump's odds need to be significantly discounted because of his campaign's weirdness, clownishness or bigotry. They're wrong. He's the overwhelming favorite to head the Republican ticket this fall."
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/time-to-face-facts
Of course, at FiveThirtyEight they pride themselves of being the antithesis of faith based logic.
"The only mild caveat is that with a Bush or a McCain or a Romney, by the time these gents had established a clear string of wins they had substantial buy-in from party leaders, elected officials and donors - something Trump still clearly lacks. But that only gets you so far. He's the clear favorite among GOP primary voters. And in case you're thinking, well, not the majority, just about a third of GOP primary voters - well, no one ever gets 50% or 60% while you're still in a contested race. It doesn't work that way."
"If he doesn't secure the nomination, it is difficult - barring some big changes - that another candidate does secure a majority."
"To be clear, I'm not making a prediction. Things could change. My point is that there are many people in and out of the GOP who still believe Trump's odds need to be significantly discounted because of his campaign's weirdness, clownishness or bigotry. They're wrong. He's the overwhelming favorite to head the Republican ticket this fall."
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/time-to-face-facts
Of course, at FiveThirtyEight they pride themselves of being the antithesis of faith based logic.
"Chad, if Iowa was a great night for early Trump skeptics and New Hampshire was a terrible one, South Carolina looks about halfway in between. Trump skeptics can point out he didn’t improve on his performance from New Hampshire despite several candidates dropping out, which suggests he may indeed have a ceiling. They can also say that Marco Rubio has moved pretty clearly ahead in the “establishment lane” primary, giving Trump a major rival down the road."
"Meanwhile, Trump optimists can point to the scoreboard — two wins in three states — including one where he’s going to win a lot of delegates tonight. They can ask how soon Kasich and Bush are really going to drop out. They could say their guy is likely to win a three-way race with Rubio and Cruz both still in, even if a one-on-one race might be a problem for him. So there’s something for everyone tonight."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/nevada-caucus-south-carolina-primary-presidential-election-2016/
"Betting markets, weighing all of this information, see the Republican race thusly: Trump at about 50 percent to win the nomination, Rubio at 40 percent, and the rest of the field at 10 percent. I might quibble here and there, but that seems like basically a sound assessment. Now, let’s get back to arguing on Twitter."
The consensus at Nate and Friends seems to be that Ted Cruz is going to have a hard time with the delegate math and that this will be a Rubio-Trump race though Silver acknowledges that this doesn't mean that Cruz or even Kasich gets out anytime soon.
The question for Rubio though is where does he win his first primary? Still far from obvious.
The question for Rubio though is where does he win his first primary? Still far from obvious.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/marco-rubio-gop-nomination_us_56c8f6f0e4b041136f174693
It is interesting that he is declaring victory while winning zero delegates.
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