He will get above this number. It's his absolute ceiling. What Trump boom?
As soon as the race winnows down he will lose as clearly 54 percent are totally against him.
So all these other GOPers should get out tomorrow and then Rubio can beat him 54-46.
Sorry Nate Silver, but you and your crew have been wrong about Trump all along. In fairness your boy Harry Enten has been even more wrong than you have been.
I'm convinced that Harry Enten is just so offended by the idea that Trump could actually be the nominee of the Republican party that he has convinced himself any day now the Rubio surge is coming. But he's supposed to be a scientist not a moralist.
Silver did admit to being wrong about Trump. As he says he had assumed the party would decide and it didn't. It actually decided Trump was better than Cruz. As Enten notes now the party seems to be choosing Rubio. But at this point the cow seems out of the barn.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-party-is-deciding-on-rubio/
Rubio can take as many victory laps as he wants for coming in second. But at this point he needs to come in first somewhere. In Sunday he suggested he might win his own state of Florida. That would be way too late.
At this point every second place finish is a finish that puts him even further behind Trump.
Trump himself had a good time with this desperation to call a ceiling for him in his victory speech.
"Surrounded by allies and riding his highest vote-share yet, the idea that Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz or Kasich could catch him sounded -- to Trump -- more desperate and ridiculous than ever"
As soon as the race winnows down he will lose as clearly 54 percent are totally against him.
So all these other GOPers should get out tomorrow and then Rubio can beat him 54-46.
Sorry Nate Silver, but you and your crew have been wrong about Trump all along. In fairness your boy Harry Enten has been even more wrong than you have been.
I'm convinced that Harry Enten is just so offended by the idea that Trump could actually be the nominee of the Republican party that he has convinced himself any day now the Rubio surge is coming. But he's supposed to be a scientist not a moralist.
Silver did admit to being wrong about Trump. As he says he had assumed the party would decide and it didn't. It actually decided Trump was better than Cruz. As Enten notes now the party seems to be choosing Rubio. But at this point the cow seems out of the barn.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-party-is-deciding-on-rubio/
Rubio can take as many victory laps as he wants for coming in second. But at this point he needs to come in first somewhere. In Sunday he suggested he might win his own state of Florida. That would be way too late.
At this point every second place finish is a finish that puts him even further behind Trump.
Trump himself had a good time with this desperation to call a ceiling for him in his victory speech.
"Surrounded by allies and riding his highest vote-share yet, the idea that Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz or Kasich could catch him sounded -- to Trump -- more desperate and ridiculous than ever"
“Tonight we had 45, 46 percent and tomorrow you’ll be hearing, ‘You know if they could just take the other candidates and add them up, and if you could add them up, because you know the other candidates amount to 55 percent, so if they could just add,'" said Trump, imitating pundits and political analysts. "They keep forgetting that when people drop out we’re going to get a lot of votes.’”
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/donald-trump-nevada-victory-219706#ixzz415OFeyiT
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/donald-trump-nevada-victory-219706#ixzz415OFeyiT
What really has to worry the Establishment is Trump is a strange mutation that can win anywhere. Imagine a creature that can thrive in the water, on the land, and in the air.
That is Trump within the GOP primary. Usually outsiders like Ted Cruz are built for red states.
Trump can win blue states, purple states, and red states. He won in NH, SC, and now Nevada.
Name me the state he has no shot in? Surely not Florida.
So Nate Silver admitted to being wrong about Trump. But he and the rest of FiveThirtyEight dropped the ball again last Saturday by trying to minimize Trump's win.
As he didn't outperform the polls as he did in NH, his win was declared 'no big deal.'
Wrong. The 11 point margin over Rubio and Cruz may not have been earth shattering though it was solid. But it was the breadth of his dominance that was eye opening. How he won county after county. Just like last night.
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