Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Trump Needs to Start Criticizing Rubio

Some polls have come out today both nationally and in SC, Nev, etc. which show Rubio in second. 

And now we have SC Governor Nicky Haley's endorsement. There's this assumption that Rubio is done after his robotic debate in NH. It's not that simple. Josh Marshall has been saying this, but he acknowledges the GOP Establishment is certainly trying to get Rubio back in it.

UPDATE: There was actually a poll out today that showed Cruz ahead of Trump nationally. No doubt some GOPers will declare that is thanks to being so mean to W and Jeb at the debate. 

I think Marshall's take here is the right one, however. Until we see more, you don't want to get too excited over that poll considering other national polls show Trump with huge national leads. 

"As you've seen NBC has a new poll out tonight showing Ted Cruz pulling into a nationwide lead in the GOP primary race. Of course, there is no national primary. But Trump hasn't been behind nationwide in basically forever. So is this legit?"

"There are four other national polls out which have at least some data from after Saturday night's debate. One of them is from Morning Consult, a poll with a fairly novel methodology, which is even more recent and shows Trump fully 27 points out in front of Marco Rubio in second place."

"Meanwhile two other polls - from Quinnipiac and Suffolk - have data from before and after the debate. And they show a Trump 20 and 15 point lead. Another poll has a 20 point Trump lead but it's mainly before the debate."

"In other words, there's a lot of other poll data. And none of it shows any deterioration for Trump. The only other totally post-debate poll is much less of a known quantity (Morning Consult) than the highly respected NBC/WSJ poll. So it's definitely possible that this is the first of a trend. But until we see more data, I think we have to look at this poll with a significant amount of skepticism."

What seems more clear is that Rubio seems to be getting a jump in some polls both at the state and national level.
What's clear is that Jeb sure didn't get any bounce from the debate. SC is a state which I think he had a decent chance of doing well in coming in. Precisely because W is thought of highly here, plus Lindsay Graham's endorsement.

If Jeb face plants as badly on Saturday as the polls seem to indicate where does Jeb go from here? Kasich too might have some real troubles post SC. I know he's waiting for better states for him in the Midwest but does he have the money to go on until then?

If Jeb is either out or badly damaged post SC then Rubio could become the Establishment choice in very quick order.

This is why I really miss Chris Christie. Someone has to call him out on his robot routine again before it's too late.

Hopefully I'm wrong, but I really think he's very quietly retooling and no one is watching him. Jeb probably should have gone after him on Saturday rather than messing with Trump who despite the audience, clearly got the worse of the confrontation-as he always does with Trump.


  1. Interesting. I saw that thing about Cruz being ahead in one poll nationally.

    Coulter makes a cases for Trump at TownHall:

    I was curious about her take on Trump's line "Bush lied, people died" and she doesn't like it (she wants to ring Trump's neck for that, she says). However, she is on board with "W didn't keep us safe on 9/11."

    And she basically admits that Trump is a liar and a narcissist, but argues that shouldn't matter. She thinks we need him. She's willing to overlook his "Bush lied about WMD" stance. She does however sound more isolationist than any neocon. I think that represents a change for her.

    tl;dr version: Coulter thinks Trump's a POS but he's WAY better than the rest.

  2. Well maybe he's a liar but he hasn't lied about Bush-to the contrary