A Hillary-Trump General Election?

Tom just sent me a link to Predictwise's election futures. Pretty good stuff. HRC has a 87 percent shot at the Dem nomination which is up 8 percent over last week. Bernie's chances at at 11.1 percent which is down 5.3 percent in last week.

Trump has a a chance just under 70 percent of winning GOP primary and that's an almost 26 percent increase over the last week after big wins in SC and Nevada. Rubio's chance is 25 percent with a loss of almost 5 percent in the last week.

As for the general: Hillary has a 54.5 percent chance at being our next President, and Trump has a under a 24 percent chance.

So Hillary has a much better chance than any other candidate of being next President but against the entire field of possiblities, a 55 percent shot is not a sure thing.

As usual, there are the boobirds who want to tell us what a 'flawed canddiate' she is and how she won't necessarily have a cakewalk against Trump.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/02/24/donald_trump_could_beat_hillary_clinton_in_the_general.html

However there are some problems with Josh Voorhes. For one as he admits, he has no track record in making predictions:

"Now that the Nevada dust has settled to reveal a towering statue of Trump, you may be nervously asking yourself: What happens if he really does go on to win the nomination? Hillary Clinton would crush him in the general election, right? Right?! PLEASE TELL ME I’M RIGHT!!"

"Um, maybe not."

"Before I go any further, here’s what I wrote back in the early, carefree days of the Summer of Trump (emphasis mine): “Donald Trump is a vitriol-spewing, media-manipulating, self-aggrandizing, bigoted publicity hound who has no realistic chance of winning the Republican nomination next summer or any other.” In my quasi-defense, that was the opening to a piece arguing why the media shouldn’t dismiss Trump’s candidacy as mere entertainment. Also: four out five ain’t so bad! But, yeah, I do not have a crystal ball. Lesson learned. I won’t pretend that I can tell you with any certainty who will or won’t win the White House this fall. Despite that—or I suppose because of it—it’s worth considering whether the conventional wisdom that holds Trump has no chance in a general election is wrong, much like it was about Trump’s chance of winning the GOP nomination."

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/02/24/donald_trump_could_beat_hillary_clinton_in_the_general.html

At least he admits he has a weak track record. In all honesty, however, my record is much better. While he was saying this in the Summer I was already taking him much more seriously as a threat. By late July I had recognized the potential of Trump So in all modesty such as it is, I'd take my judgment over Voorhes on predictions.

As for Voorhes reasoning as to why she will have trouble with Trump, a big part of his argument  is citing the head to head general election polls which are meaningless this early. 

This is the same fallacy Bernie uses when he brags about general election polls. 

I think Trump has shown himself to be a pretty damn good politician. But I see his rise as telling you how weak the GOP as a party really is more than anything. 

The Dems have shown on the other hand that they are a very healthy party-even though the Bernie phenomenon points to an issue that's being brewing for awhile with the emoprogs. However, the party will survive Sanders due to its basic health. 

As to Hilary-Trump:

1. The catch phrase for the GOP primary is 'The incredible whiteness of being' once the general came while Trump would move to the Left it would never be anywhere near able to make up what he's said for the Latino vote, the women, vote, etc. 

2. The GOP would split in two. A lot of more centrist GOPers would go to Hillary. 

3. This is strange to say, but Bill Clinton was right years ago in 2006 when Mark Penn worried about Hillary being attacked as a cut and run liberal if she repudiated her Iraq vote and Bill declaring that her toughest race would be the primary not the general.

http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/02/bill-clinton-vs-mark-penn-circa-2005.html

I think this holds this time too. Her real peril is the primary which she now seems to have gotten past. In the general Trump's antics will play much less favorably then the primary.

In the 90s the worry was Hillary being attacked as a hippie, feminist, Communist. But in the new millennia she's actually been more vulnerable from her Left.

This is because the party has moved Left. She has too, but there is a tendency to go back to the 90s for her.