Rubio Gets Zero Delegates In SC, Declares Victory

No doubt it's about his claim to now be the Establishment frontrunner. Nate Silver and Friends are quite bullish on Rubio.

"Not so, say the Trump skeptics. Their case is pretty simple also:

"Trump is winning states, but he’s only getting about one-third of the vote."

"Trump has a relatively low ceiling on his support."

"Trump now has a chief rival: Florida Senator Marco Rubio."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-optimists-and-trump-skeptics-are-about-to-go-to-war/

Harry Enten argues that party is finally deciding for Rubio.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-party-is-deciding-on-rubio/

Yes, that's plausible but is it too late? Rubio declares himself the winner after every contest other than the one in NH where he was a clear loser. But for a guy who 'won' last night in SC, he got zero delegates. None. Judging by recent polls, an analyst shows that Trump could have a huge delegate lead once Super Tuesday is done.

"What's the number of times one Republican has scored dominating victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina and then gone on to lose the nomination? Exactly. Never. And this isn't some kind of special magic to one state or even group of states. Though it was disappointing against expectations, even the second place showing in Iowa confirms the general narrative. Yes, things could change. Nothing is certain in politics. But it's time to dispense with any faith-based logic that disputes the fact that Donald Trump is now the overwhelming favorite to win the Republican nomination."

"Overwhelming."

"The only mild caveat is that with a Bush or a McCain or a Romney, by the time these gents had established a clear string of wins they had substantial buy-in from party leaders, elected officials and donors - something Trump still clearly lacks. But that only gets you so far. He's the clear favorite among GOP primary voters. And in case you're thinking, well, not the majority, just about a third of GOP primary voters - well, no one ever gets 50% or 60% while you're still in a contested race. It doesn't work that way."

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/time-to-face-facts

Are you listening, Lawrence O'Donnell? It doesn't work that way. O'Donnell, was declaring victory over Trump for 'the 66 percent of Republicans who didn't vote for Donald Trump.'

Josh Marshall though makes a good point: the delegate math is very tough for beating Trump:

"If he doesn't secure the nomination, it is difficult - barring some big changes - that another candidate does secure a majority."

What isn't clear is where Rubio's first victory is going to come. 

"Marco Rubio 'Won' South Carolina Tonight. It Was Actually His Worst Loss Yet.
Trump will win most -- and likely all -- of the state's delegates."

"Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) has never won a presidential primary. That didn't change on Saturday, when Rubio lost the South Carolina Republican primary, finishing behind angry rich guy Donald Trump for the third time this primary season."

"When Rubio finished third in Iowa, his campaign -- and many members of the media -- acted as if he had won. His fifth-place finish in New Hampshire made that spin even harder to believe. Just a few weeks ago, Rubio's campaign was telling reporters he'd finish second in New Hampshire and first in South Carolina."

"Now Rubio has lost again. But his campaign was painting him as the "real" victor even before polls closed."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/marco-rubio-gop-nomination_us_56c8f6f0e4b041136f174693

The real victor with zero delegates vs. the 'fake victor'-Trump-with 50 delegates. I'll take fake over real in this case.

"Breitbart's Ben Shapiro has another theory about Rubio's plan:

Rubio plan:
(1) 3rd in IA;
(2) 5th in NH;
(3) 2nd in SC;
(4) 2nd in NV;
(5) 3rd in most of the South;
(6) ....
(7) GOP nominee!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/marco-rubio-gop-nomination_us_56c8f6f0e4b041136f174693

Actually, Shapiro has a very interesting argument-no way Rubio wins unless Ted Cruz gets out. He believes that most of Cruz's support would go to Rubio.

http://www.dailywire.com/news/3558/enough-ego-fight-stop-trump-rubio-must-offer-cruz-ben-shapiro

Shapiro wants Cruz and Rubio to make 'put aside their egos in the interests of conservatism and the country.'

Luckily, I don't see that happening. The one thing I'm missing is why Shapiro assumes the Cruz voters go to Rubio-he provides no data. Anyway, Cruz doesn't strike me as a guy who would put the party ahead of his ego. This is the guy who forced a government shutdown against the wishes of his entire party in 2013.

Is he really going to give up his dream for the good of a party that despises him?

There is a case that last night was actually very disappointing for Rubio.

"If Marco Rubio Can't Beat DonaldTrump In South Carolina, Then Where Can He?"

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/02/rubio-cant-beat-trump-here-then-where.html#

By the way, such as Jeb's support is, it won't all go to Rubio. He gets more of it than any other candidate but that's still only 19 percent. Kasich gets 16 percent and Trump gets 11.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/jeb-bush-supporters-second-choice_us_56c9209be4b041136f174a8b