Just check out the election betting odds.
On the prediction site, HRC is now 90.5 percent, Bernie is down to 8.2 percent.
Trump is now up to almost 75 percent-so higher now than before the debate and Rubio is down to under 19 percent
Meanwhile in the general, Hillary is now over 56 percent.
"Despite the abundant evidence from Obama's victories proving that the U.S. population has fundamentally changed, many progressives and Democrats continue to waste millions of dollars chasing white swing voters. Explosive population growth of people of color in America over the past fifty years has laid the foundation for a New American Majority consisting of progressive people of color (23 percent of all eligible voters) and progressive whites (28 percent of all eligible voters). These two groups make up 51 percent of all eligible voters in America right now, and that majority is growing larger every day. Failing to properly appreciate this reality, progressives are at risk of missing this moment in history--and losing."
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1620971151?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creativeASIN=1620971151&linkCode=xm2&tag=thewaspos09-20
The Bernie theory of revolution assumes yet again the key to Democratic success is winning over these white swing voters.
On the prediction site, HRC is now 90.5 percent, Bernie is down to 8.2 percent.
Trump is now up to almost 75 percent-so higher now than before the debate and Rubio is down to under 19 percent
Meanwhile in the general, Hillary is now over 56 percent.
While Trump's numbers had dropped from 71 percent to 65 percent after the debate, he's now higher than ever.
The Christie endorsement was as Trump says yuge. It seems that other GOPers may be following suit soon.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/establishment-gop-shifting-to-trump-219893
Rather than deciding on Rubio the party is once again splitting.
Hillary is now herself admitting that Trump is the likely GOP nominee.
https://www.yahoo.com/politics/hillary-clinton-acknowledges-donald-trump-most-likely-republican-145559210--abc-news-topstories.html
Hillary herself is going to win by double digits today and by double digits in all Southern states on Super Tuesday. The white millennials may be in love with Bernie but the real base of the Democratic party is with Hillary.
At the end of the day, Bernie's team should have read this:
“Any discussion of the Democratic base must include the acknowledgment that that base is heavily Black,” explains Steve Phillips in his insightful new book “Brown is the New White.” Phillips argues that a “New American Majority” has formed within the voting-age population in the United States: “Progressive people of color now comprise 23 percent of all the eligible voters in America, and progressive Whites account for 28 percent of all eligible voters,” he writes. “The New American Majority electoral equation requires securing the support of 81 percent of people of color and 39 percent of Whites.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-black-voters-remain-in-hillary-clintons-corner/2016/02/25/7a86100a-da7d-11e5-81ae-7491b9b9e7df_story.html
The point of Phillips' book is that the Democratic party has for years wrongly focused on getting the votes of swing white voters. I
"Despite the abundant evidence from Obama's victories proving that the U.S. population has fundamentally changed, many progressives and Democrats continue to waste millions of dollars chasing white swing voters. Explosive population growth of people of color in America over the past fifty years has laid the foundation for a New American Majority consisting of progressive people of color (23 percent of all eligible voters) and progressive whites (28 percent of all eligible voters). These two groups make up 51 percent of all eligible voters in America right now, and that majority is growing larger every day. Failing to properly appreciate this reality, progressives are at risk of missing this moment in history--and losing."
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1620971151?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creativeASIN=1620971151&linkCode=xm2&tag=thewaspos09-20
The Bernie theory of revolution assumes yet again the key to Democratic success is winning over these white swing voters.
The trouble is he totally misses the importance of demographics in terms of the strength of the Democratic party.
The Dem base is people of color and women, along with a growing number of suburban whites.
Hillary herself is going to win by single digits today and by single digits in all Southern states on Super Tuesday.
ReplyDeleteDon't you mean double digits? 1-9 single digits. 10 -99 double digits.
Hillary herself is going to win by single digits today and by single digits in all Southern states on Super Tuesday.
ReplyDeleteDon't you mean double digits? 1-9 single digits. 10 -99 double digits.
Yes, of course. TK JustUS! I have a regular reader who notices my typos but glad you noticed those! Double digits for sure.
ReplyDeleteMike here's another rose for you: A prominent RedState author (Leon Wolf) "endorses" Hillary! And calls for a 3rd party conservative to get in.
ReplyDelete"On the other hand, there’s a real argument (probably a correct one, if we are being honest) that Donald Trump would be a worse president than Hillary Clinton. Just judging by what he has done this campaign season, he would easily be the worst President who ever lived. He’s surrounded himself in his campaign with low-intellect chuckleheads who have been selected for no reason other than their willingness to say literally anything on his behalf. He’s been endlessly fixated on polls since day one, which is a sure-fire indicator that he will govern based on what he polls tell him. And he has shown absolutely no ideological compass, except to the extent that it points left (which is why he repeatedly comes back to 9/11 trutherism, universal government run healthcare, and repeated praise of Planned Parenthood).
He would, as the chief of state, destabilize the entire world with his insane rhetoric. He furthermore believes that as President, he would assume dictatorial control over United States trade policy, which he would use to disastrous effect. He is the crypto-fascist William Buckley was falsely accused of being.
All things being equal, as a man with a family and children, I would probably prefer the slow decline of America under Hillary to the rapid collapse under Trump."
The main subject of the article is to inspire hope for a 3rd party conservative to jump in so that they don't lose both the house and the senate. (He's basically writing off the senate at this point). Wow! He's convinced that the day after Trump gets the nomination, the media will go after him and uncover really really bad stuff that will:
"General election voters have still not really tuned in to Trump’s schtick, but once they are exposed to it, and to what a terrible and corrupt businessman Trump really is, they are going to run screaming in horror."
Now remember, Erickson is no longer with RedState, but as near as I can tell, this Wolf guy is one of the most prominent writers there now.
The comments are good too. They like the article. They're also resigned to losing the WH (unless Bernie and/or Bloomberg get in as independents, and then several miracles happen). Many are resigned to the Republican party being over now, and looking forward to starting a new party.
DeleteYet another rose for you: Lindsey Graham saying HRC is going to be the next prez... that Cruz could be murdered on the floor of the Senate and you couldn't get a conviction if the trial was held in the Senate, and that his party has gone bat-shit crazy.
ReplyDeleteHe did offer one line there that would make an excellent post-nomination T-shirt or hat: "Donald Trump doesn't know what makes America Great."
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