Wednesday, February 10, 2016

The Bernie Coalition vs. the Obama Coalition

The media is of course going to lose itself after Bernie's strong win in NH last night, ignoring the fact totally that he has been expected to win NH for a long time.

However, the bright side for Hillary is that while she lost handily as expected:

1. There are very few blacks and Latino voters in NH.

2. The Democratic vote was actually tied-his big margin came from independents, etc.

3. Most subsequent states will be more diverse and only allow Democratic voters.

There has been some talk that Bernie is trying to rebuild the Obama coalition. This is false. As Propane Jane likes to say, the Obama coalition has already been built; it doesn't need rebuilding.

"They're tying themselves in knots to create a mythological Democratic base that has no POC or other historically marginalized groups in it."

Right. Speaking of which this makes me think of the folks saying that young women are not voting for Hillary because they vote issues not gender.

The Obama coalition as Propane Jane never tires of saying, had black folks leading it. Bernie's coalition is not the same. It has young folks mostly young white folks.

But it doesn't have POC or women. Last night Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight noted that even in NH, Hillary's support looked more like Obama's in 2008.

"Surprise, surprise: Some of Clinton’s best towns (perhaps more accurate: least worst towns) tonight were some of her weakest towns in 2008. It looks like she’s taken 46 percent in Exeter, 43 percent in Portsmouth and 43 percent in Concord. Most surprisingly, there’s even one report she took 47 percent in Hanover, home to Dartmouth College (this has not yet been reported by the AP). Clinton appears to be doing better with academic types in New Hampshire this time, but has cratered with rural and blue collar Democrats."

"David, I dare say Clinton’s coalition is starting to look a little bit like Obama’s. That is, wealthier white voters and black voters. If, however, Clinton loses black voters to Sanders, then she’s in a world of trouble. There’s no sign she’s losing those voters yet, though."
Bernie doesn't admit it but his path going forward gets tougher and he and Tad Devine know it.

"Sanders, who represents the overwhelmingly white state of Vermont in the Senate, has yet to prove he has the ability to win minority voters -- a critical component of the Democratic Party coalition. He’s said he’s confident non-white voters would come to him once they heard his message -- and aides consistently repeat that claim – but his close defeat in Iowa and landslide win New Hampshire, two states that are just as white as Vermont, haven’t answered any of the questions."

Read more:
Here is what I don't get though. Bernie has been saying for eight months that black voters will finally come to him when they get to know him, hear he marched with MLK, hear he wants to get money out of politics and single payer. Yet they haven't moved in eight months.

While he gained among white voters he's gained little among AAs-or Latinos for that matter. Is he going to make up a 30 or 40 point deficit in a couple of weeks-as SC votes February 28 and Super Tuesday March 1?

Here's the thing. He won't and he knows it. He is meeting with Al Sharpton this morning-Sharpton is not going to endorse him and an interview the Rev did with Hillary will be coming out tonight as well.

His AA surrogates have been double edged swords-Killer Mike, Cornell West. Ben Jealous was an impressive pickup unitl Jealous basically dismissed HRC's important meeting with a black church in Flint, Michigan.

But this is what AAs like Propane Jane are highlighting. Bernie's goal is not to win the black vote. He knows that is way too late to do. His hope is to neutralize it and thereby make the white liberal vote decisive.

“With minority voters, African-Americans and Latinos, the main obstacle we have is they simply don’t know [Sanders]. As they get to know him, as they get to know his story, as they begin to see his message and what he stands for, I think he’s going to have a tremendous opportunity,” said chief strategist Tad Devine after Sanders’ victory Tuesday evening. “We also believe with African-Americans that Bernie Sanders’ story is enormously powerful. This is a guy who as a student at the University of Chicago set the direction of his entire life to the civil rights struggle and we think telling his story and what became of it, his fight for equality, civil rights, his fight against inequality and economic injustice is very, very powerful, and is going to resonate with the African-American community.”

"Sanders has said that he plans to stick around until the convention, and new investments in television ads in Minnesota, Colorado, Massachusetts, and Oklahoma (all largely white states) on Tuesday sent a clear message that he has the money to fund that kind of prolonged challenge."

"That still won’t be enough to take Clinton down: Sanders would need to almost run the table in the 10 caucus states that come in March and do respectably enough in the primary states, all while holding off a Clinton machine that’ll be pulling out all the stops."

"Illinois State Sen. Terry Link, an assistant majority leader in Springfield and a Clinton delegate, said that he doesn’t expect there to be much of a race on his home turf on March 15.

“Sanders will obviously do very well in New Hampshire, but I think after that, where does he go?” Link said. “You see the handwriting on the wall.”

"Sanders will also need to defuse the all-but-inevitable grenade that will be rolled into the fray by his rivals -- that Sanders is trying to beat an almost all-white path to the nomination through the notably not diverse Democratic electorates in caucus states like Minnesota, Nebraska, Kansas, Maine, Idaho, Utah, Alaska, and Washington."

Read more:

So the Bernie Coalition would be a coalition that won despite not getting the black, or Latino vote or the women vote.

"That caucus-based strategy is designed to soften the expected blow on Super Tuesday, when Clinton is expected to run well in Southern primaries. Sanders is betting on heavily white caucus states like Minnesota and Colorado that say, while banking on winning proportionally-allocated delegates in populous states like Virginia and Massachusetts."

"From there, they hope a Clinton-is-stumbling-badly narrative will have taken hold, opening the door to upsets in primary states like Michigan. By late March, the Sanders campaign hopes, the senator will have amassed enough delegates—and momentum—to make clear he's in it for the long haul."

Read more:
No matter how you look at it, a Hillary win will be via the Obama Coalition and POC and women will be her base. Bernie''s base of support is the white male vote. 

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