Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Last Night Bernie Won Big in Numbers but not so Much in Delegates

I argued in my last piece that Hillary is essentially running on the Obama Coalition.

The Bernie Coalition vs. the Obama Coalition

Another way she's running Obama's race is via remembering it's about delegates not just votes. She won on votes in 2008 but Obama won in delegates.

I'm not sure what the delegate count is right now-as different news sites seem to have different numbers but what's clear is that last night is not a blowout in delegates by any stretch.

Right now Politico while showing him up by 22, has Bernie with 13 delegates so far, and her with 15.

Remember that the she has picked up super delegates in the state. And coming into last night she had 385 delegates to his 29.

She will leave NH with over 400 delegates while he will have not much more than 50 even when they fully apportion them. And this is after two states which favor him demographically and the state of NH that favors him geographically.

In my last piece we saw how he needs to run the table in caucus states and white states. The trouble is this won't necessarily give him huge pickups in delegates-not that I think he will run the table in white and caucus states.

Despite the Bernie spin, he did benefit from geography last night. Iowa is also rural, white, and progressive and he lost.

So remember that Hillary bots. It's delegates that ultimately matter. It takes 2300 and she already has over 400. She needs less than 1900, he needs 2250.

Those like Jennifer Rubin who say HRC is in big trouble perhaps aren't so great at math.

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