Tuesday, February 9, 2016

No Matter What Beltway Says, Bernie's NH Win Was Expected

It's not surprising in the least. The Beltway is loving this and really trying to amplify it. Bernie clearly got a solid win in NH-we will see how solid. But this has been expected since the Summer at the very least.

I mean if he has any chance at winning the primary he had to win in NH. There won't be many more states this advantageous.

The media also has gone as far as accepted Bernie's implausible claim that he hasn't gotten a home state bounce and ignore just how much the demographics favor him here in a such a largely white, rural state.

But at the end of the day, we've had two states that favored Bernie and he's 1 of 2. This won't matter for the next few days. The media is going to lose it's mind over him winning a state he was supposed to win.

That's fine. Let them do lose perspective. Meanwhile I think Nate Silver largely gets it. This is probably more trouble for the GOP Establishment than the Dems.

"I’m not sure I buy that tonight is an equally poor result for both Democratic and Republican “party elites.” It’s been clear to us for a long time that New Hampshire was an excellent state for Bernie Sanders, between its white and liberal demographics and its proximity to Vermont. The key tests of the breadth of Sanders’s constituency are still to come."

"For Republicans, however, New Hampshire is a state that’s supposed to winnow the field. Instead, it’s given us a mess, with four “establishment” candidates all bunched up between 8 percent and 16 percent of the vote as I type this. Although it’s not quite the worst-case scenario for the GOP — Trump’s middling performance in Iowa is evidence that he can be stopped under the right conditions — they’re in a pretty rough spot."

I think that's right. Of course, watching MSNBC right now, you wouldn't know this. Andrea Mitchell who is a Alan Greenspan's wife and a huge GOPer doesn't want to talk about Trump and keeps diverting the conversation to Bernie.

UPDATE: Exit polls show that Bernie and HRC split the Democrat vote. Bernie's win was predicated on huge margins with independents and men. The recent exit polls showed Bernie with a 66-32 lead among men and 53-47. Some Right wing guest on CNN was funny. She claimed this shows Hillary needs to make up her big deficit with men! Why doesn't Bernie need to make up a huge deficit with women? The framing is always anti Hillary and pro Bernie in the Beltway

 Last I heard they are bringing Camilia Paglia in to MSNBC-an inveterate Hillary hating 'feminist' since the 90s. All the Hillary haters are out to dance on her grave tonight.

I'm sure Paglia will use this as an opportunity to gloat about how anti feminist Gloria Steinem, et al, are for supporting Hillary and how today's young women are much too smart to support her. She'll probably bring up Monica Lewinsky, etc. If you know her work this is boilerplate for her.

But, like the Obama team's rule in 2008, this is no time for wetting the bed Hillary lovers. This race is going to more favorable terrain in the next few weeks.

What you have to remember is the reason Hillary haters throw so many spitballs is partly to demoralize her supporters. Hillary doesn't let herself get demoralized and neither should we!

P.S. If you want a laugh check out this comic by Wuerker.

P.S.S. If you are a glutton for punishment like me, you might even prefer CNN to MSNBC tonight. If anything they at least try to cover every side Often that's an annoying feature but tonight it makes it a little more bearable to watch. 

No comments:

Post a Comment