Tuesday, February 2, 2016

No Bernie a Tie is not a Win

For the record, Iowa technically went to Hillary. But the main point is that Bernie doesn't gain the delegates he needs.

"As with horseshoes and hand grenades, close does count in tough primary fights like the one brewing between Clinton and Sanders. Momentum and beating expectations also matter, especially for the political scorekeepers in the news media, and Sanders can claim victories on both those metrics. But the fight for a party's presidential nomination really comes down to math — a fact Barack Obama's campaign drew on to defeat Clinton in 2008 — and a near-win in Iowa doesn't add up for Sanders."

"The problem for Sanders is that his base of support is among white liberals, and "there is only one state where whites who self-identify as liberals make up a higher share of the Democratic primary electorate than Iowa and New Hampshire," said David Wasserman at the Cook Political Report. "You guessed it: Vermont." Clinton also has a massive lead in pledged superdelegates, who make up 15 percent of the Democratic delegates and aren't tied to state results."

"Wasserman and the Cook team put together a chart with estimates of the number of delegates Clinton and Sanders would have to win in each state to be "on track" to win the Democratic nomination. The "key takeaway," he notes, is that "for Sanders to be 'on track' to break even in pledged delegates nationally, he wouldn't just need to win Iowa and New Hampshire by a hair. He would need to win 70 percent of Iowa's delegates and 63 percent of New Hampshire's delegates." In other words, Wasserman adds, "if Sanders prevails narrowly in Iowa or New Hampshire, his support among liberal whites and in college towns... would be entirely consistent with a scenario in which he also gets clobbered by Clinton nationally."

"Sanders will win about 50 percent of Iowa delegates, or 21 delegates, according to a near-complete tally. Wassermann's chart suggests Sanders had to win 31 delegates to be on track to tie Clinton nationally. "When placed in the proper mathematical context," Wasserman concludes, "this year's Democratic primary remains a much steeper mountain for Sanders than many chroniclers of the campaign trail seem to realize or acknowledge."

And remember she gets some Iowa super delegates. At this point he leaves Iowa with 21 delegates to her 28.

Jamelle Bouie:

"As for the final outcome of the Democratic presidential primary? It’s still too early to say. But, the tie in Iowa means the basic shape of the race hasn’t changed. To win, Sanders needs to dominate in friendly states and survive in hostile strongholds. Iowa, with its young people and liberal voters, was a test of the former, and he couldn’t deliver. Put differently, as the consensus candidate of much of the Democratic Party—with strong support among people of color, Democratic moderates, and a large minority of Democratic liberals—Clinton is still favored to win the nomination. For Sanders to advance—and capture the prize from Clinton’s hands—he needs to excel, or she needs to stumble, badly. The former is a challenge, and while the latter is possible, after the 2008 primary and the surprise of Barack Obama, I wouldn’t count on it."

As for NH: the one good thing coming out of there is expectations are very low for HRC. You have some recent polling that shows her down by 20 points. Meanwhile her internal polling shows her down by 8. At this point 8 would be a big out performing of expectations.

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