Wednesday, February 10, 2016

A Tough Night for the Establishment but Tougher for GOP Than the Dems

I agree with both Krugman-who has finally started tweeting; he says it's temporary but wasn't blogging going to be temporary as well?-and Nate Silver. Last night was a bad night for both the Dem and GOP Establishments but worse for the GOP.

Nate Silver:

"I’m not sure I buy that tonight is an equally poor result for both Democratic and Republican “party elites.” It’s been clear to us for a long time that New Hampshire was an excellent state for Bernie Sanders, between its white and liberal demographics and its proximity to Vermont. The key tests of the breadth of Sanders’s constituency are still to come."

"For Republicans, however, New Hampshire is a state that’s supposed to winnow the field. Instead, it’s given us a mess, with four “establishment” candidates all bunched up between 8 percent and 16 percent of the vote as I type this. Although it’s not quite the worst-case scenario for the GOP — Trump’s middling performance in Iowa is evidence that he can be stopped under the right conditions — they’re in a pretty rough spot."

"Another sign of how painful this nomination process is likely to be for Republicans, and how Democrats’ predicament isn’t quite the same:

"According to exit polls, only 48 percent of New Hampshire Republican voters would be pleased with Donald Trump as their nominee. Trump fared better on the question than Ted Cruz (38 percent) and Marco Rubio (40 percent), but nonetheless, Republicans who did not vote for Trump would have trouble with him as their nominee by almost a 3:1 margin."

"By contrast, 64 percent of New Hampshire Democrats would be happy with Hillary Clinton as their nominee, while 78 would be happy with Sanders."

David Wasserman also at FiveThirtyEight points out that there was some great news for Hillary-in the GOP primary.

"If you were to sketch out the most disastrous New Hampshire outcome possible for the anti-Trump GOP “establishment,” I’d argue it would be what we’re witnessing right now."

"Unlike in Iowa, Trump appears to be exceeding his polling average and expectations. Furthermore, the only “breakout” candidate in the next tier appears to be John Kasich, who looks likely to win a clear second place finish thanks to strong showings in liberal enclaves. But Kasich holds little appeal outside of New Hampshire. Bush looks likely to finish slightly ahead of Rubio, setting up an establishment muddle in South Carolina."

"In one sense, tonight looks like Clinton’s worst night of the 2016 campaign yet. But, if tonight also means that the Republican race remains a complete mess for the next several months, it could actually turn into Clinton’s best news in the long run."

This is an important point. Tonight was an expected loss for HRC and the polls had shown it wouldn't be close.

But the face plant of the GOP Establishment was a great development.

Indeed, from my Trump Democrat perspective, you could argue that on the GOP side it almost couldn't have gone better than it did.

Trump won by 20 points. Ted Cruz finished third. Jeb Bush was fourth. Marco Rubio-who Nate Silver and many others have argued is the GOP's only viable general election choice-finished fifth and currently has been awarded no delegates in NH.

About the only thing you could have wanted more was maybe for Christie to finish above Rubio. Christie is the Kamikaze fighter who brought Rubio down.

You kind of hope he keeps going-though he clearly dropped off in NH the last month or so and it's not clear where he goes from here.

No comments:

Post a Comment