Monday, February 1, 2016

Why is Bernie Trying to Lower Expectations in Iowa?

In party this is only smart. But he has said again and again that he can lose Iowa 'by a few points' and it still be a big moral victory.

It's debatable that this is a moral victory. In such a white, rural state he's supposed to win. Listen, it's a given he's expected to win NH-is this a news flash?

But if he loses Iowa, then wins NH, we then go to two much more diverse, Hillary friendly states-SC and Nevada.

In any case, Hillary is talking in such a way that sounds confident that she has Iowa.

"Hillary is talking right now in Des Moines like someone who's seen private polling telling her she will win. Laying down policy markers.../"

"Forget what it looks like, we know her private polling has shown her winning "

This is a big difference between now and 2008. Then she was trying to give as many speeches as possible till the end. Now she has Bill and Chelsea out more and she hardly seems panicked.

This time, it's Bernie who is trying to get in as many speeches as possible till the end.

But the reason Bernie may be saying a 2 point loss is ok is as he's seen these internal polls as well.

"On a call with supporters Monday, the campaign shared internal polls that showed it up by 5 points in Iowa, trailing Sen. Bernie Sanders by 8 to 9 points in New Hampshire, but with large leads in the next two states with large Hispanic and black populations: up 25 points in Nevada and 35 points in South Carolina."

"At the finance meeting, Podesta said the campaign is going to win Iowa, attendees said."

"And they said it was a welcome opportunity to raise more specific questions on Latino outreach with senior leadership, where the focus was entirely on the primary, and the general election was barely mentioned."

"The campaign was asked if it had, for example, began planning Florida outreach to the growing Puerto Rican population, separate from the engagement it might have with Cuban voters. Donors also said they want to see more Spanish-language ads from the campaign, like radio ads in Nevada."

"Campaign officials said the campaign is focused on the four early states at the moment, but the donors mentioned Colorado and Texas, which have their primaries on March 1, as well as Florida and Illinois on March 15. With Sanders looking more competitive, supporters want to make sure Clinton isn’t leaving Latino votes on the table."

C'mon Iowa, show You're With Her.

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