Monday, February 1, 2016

What's at Stake in Iowa Tonight?

No matter how you want to frame it or spin it, obviously winning is better than losing. Both Bernie and Hillary would rather win tonight than lose.

Bernie, though, has been suggesting that a close loss would be a moral victory.

This suggests to me he thinks it's likely that he won't win. Ok, you want to manage expectations so he's right to do so in any case.

But it also seems likely that his own internal polls are showing this-as we know her's do.

You don't hear her saying a close loss would be fine.

It looks like Hillary will win-though it's not a sure thing. Nate Silver has her at 76 percent likelihood to win.

It's more important that he wins than she does however,

No doubt, she wants to win. It is better for her that she wins. If she loses, the media feeding frenzy will get even more extreme than it already is.

The Beltway press hates Hillary Clinton, has always done so, and it would love to see her taken down here.

They don't want the Democratic party to nominate Hillary Clinton.

Still, if she were to lose a close loss this would still not give Bernie enough delegates. For this reason, Sam Wang argues that he needs a 10 point win to really put himself on the right track.

Even then, though she is in very strong shape to win the South and many other states. And she still has that huge super delegate lead.

People forget that her race with Obama was very competitive. As he himself says, if a few states had gone first she would have won.

The key for the Obama team is they had done the delegate math. This is what the Hillary team is not forgetting this time.

For him to lose Iowa outright would be very tough to come back from as this is an optimum state for him.

So it's more important that he win than she does but it would definitely help her a lot to get a win to shut down all the bedwetting from the media who is floating more Biden talk now. 

No comments:

Post a Comment