There has been a lot of discussion of this theory in light of Trump's dominance and the rise of Bernie.
Nate Silver has finally given up his Trump skepticism when it became clear that the GOP has decided not to try to sink him.
Is the theory itself now in tatters? Good question.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/01/trump-wins-do-parties-still-decide-nominees.html#
Nate Silver has finally given up his Trump skepticism when it became clear that the GOP has decided not to try to sink him.
Is the theory itself now in tatters? Good question.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/01/trump-wins-do-parties-still-decide-nominees.html#
I think it can still be salvaged with a Trump win, though not with a Bernie win. With Trump you can argue plausibly, that the GOP is not a strong party this year.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-republican-party-may-be-failing/
The Dems on the other hand are clearly a strong party this year so if Bernie were the nominee this would show that 2016 was a year when the party no longer decides.
The Dems as a party are incredibly unified. She has 464 endorsements from within the party. On the GOP side, there is only about 130 endorsements divided among 5 different candidates.
How does a party decide when they don't even agree among themselves?
What's more, Chris Hayes, argued recently that most Democrats like their party's establishment which is certainly true when you think of folks like Planned Parenthood, etc.
What's more most Democrats love Hillary. It's not like the GOP where the base rightfully can't stand it's own leaders.
She is getting basically unanimous support from black Democrats.
Here was a very powerful speech for her by civil rights pioneer, John Lewis.
https://t.co/AQhIPEp0X6
https://www.instagram.com/p/BBNyPgdMRou/
https://www.instagram.com/p/BBNyPgdMRou/
With a devastating one-two punch like Trump-Cruz, the battered GOP must pick sides, and I'm happy to see that even Rubin (who hates both), seems to slightly favor Trump:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2016/02/01/trump-has-a-couple-of-things-right-about-the-phony-cruz/
I swear she's going to end up a Trump Democrat yet! (because when it comes down to Trump vs Clinton, can she really vote for Trump? I think not). I'm anticipating a pro-Clinton post on her blog this year. This is great!
As you know, the joy I got from the whole Trump Democrat angle has receded some since my focus on getting HRC over the finished line.
ReplyDeleteI've come to the conclusion though that maybe a Trump win over Cruz in Iowa could even be counterprdocutive.
The Establishment strategy is to take out Cruz first and then take out Trump after.
Don't get me wrong I mostly want to see Trump win Iowa.
But part of me worries that if Cruz loses Iowa this might hurt him enough to boos Rubio who then could emerge as a clear Establishment choice which is what a Trump Democrat most doesnt want to see.
So a Trump Democrat might want Trump to not quite win Iowa-and then get big wins in NH and SC?
Paradox on top of paradox.