Saturday, February 13, 2016

Little Change in GOP SC Primary Post Iowa and NH

The only exception to this is Kasich who thanks to his strong second place NH showing is up 8 points to 9 percent. The good news is he's up 800 percent the bad news is he was at 1 before the big surge.

Other than that, little has changed. Trump led Ted Cruz 36-20 in a January poll; in a new recent poll he leads: 36-20.

If Trump is to romp to a SC victory as the polls indicate-a week from today-then, based on GOP primary history, he will be very hard to stop. In coming in a close second in Iowa, and first in NH and SC, this would put him in a stronger position than Mitt Romney was in 2012.

Nate Silver, who was the most intractable Trump skeptic now agrees that Trump is the frontrunner.

It doesn't seem to me that anyone is listening to Nate however. The goal in the Establishment lane is for each candidate to establish themselves as the Establishment pick.

Rubio then hopes to do well relatively to Jeb and Jeb needs to do well relatively to Rubio. Kasich is already looking ahead to more hospitable purple states.

John Kasich and his allies are scurrying to ramp up his presidential campaign in South Carolina, but the Ohio governor is also looking farther along the campaign schedule as well.

Fresh off a strong second-place finish in New Hampshire, Kasich now must survive a string of tougher contests – including South Carolina, Nevada, and a string of southern state primaries – until he reaches friendlier Midwestern primaries such as Michigan and Ohio starting in early March.

While Kasich has spent every day since Tuesday's New Hampshire primary campaigning in South Carolina, the state's Feb. 20 election won't be his only focus.

Kasich has planned two days next week in Michigan -- a March 8 primary state that might be his first chance for a win. He also has a campaign stop planned for Virginia and a fundraiser in New York before returning to the Palmetto State for the home stretch."

Jeb, it seems to me, has a chance to at least do decently in SC-of course what is decent for him now has been defined down from what it once was
But with an endorsement by Lindsay Graham, and hugging his brother in the state, it could pay some dividends for him. In the new poll Rubio is at 15 to Jeb's 11 and he would love to finish ahead of his former protege again. 
I don't buy that Jeb will be getting out anytime soon. It seems to me that he is quite willing to spend all that super PAC money to bring Rubio to his knees. Yes, that would be great for Trump. That's not why he'd do it though that would be the effect. 
But he is really ticked that Rubio got in this race in the first place-in Jeb's mind Rubio should have 'waited his turn.'
And Kasich might as well wait for states like Michigan-why not? I guess money could be an issue. But he is now at least in contention in the Establishment lane in SC. 
Here the Bushie Queen, Nicole Wallace, tells us how Rubio can get back on track: he needs to get rip up his script.
Yes, but is he capable of that? That recent Buzzfeed piece that talked about how even his handlers talk about how poorly he does under pressure might seem to suggest otherwise. 

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