Monday, February 1, 2016

Bernie is Kidding Himself if He Thinks He Doesn't Need Iowa

Yesterday in his interview on Chris Hayes he claimed he could lose Iowa and it would still be a big win based on how far he's come since he entered the race-60 points down.

This moral victory, though, won't be enough. 

He needs to win Iowa. Actually Sam Wang argues, he really needs a 10 point win in Iowa. 

"After the mindnumbing levels of coverage over the last year…the first actual voting of the primary season finally starts on Monday, with the Iowa caucuses. To answer the simple horserace question, Donald Trump will probably come out on top on the Republican side, as will Hillary Clinton on the Democratic side. Although neither of these outcomes is absolutely certain, neither are these the right questions to ask for the long term."

"For the long term, a better question to ask is: can we get clues about who will eventually get the Republican and Democratic nominations? (For a hint, mouse over the image.) To get a sense of where things might be headed, here’s what I will be thinking about on Monday night."

"Iowa is a must-win state for Bernie Sanders. Neither Trump or Clinton needs it, and what other GOP candidates need, Iowa won’t deliver."

How you view the Democrat race right now depends on how you want to frame it. Right now the media is framing it as this is 2008 all over again-she's in trouble. This was never supposed to be a competitive race.
On the other hand, the HRC team has insisted that there hasn't been much surprise on their end-Eric Boehlert a year ago had said she needs a competitive primary. 
If Bernie can't win Iowa as one of the whitest and most rural states in the nation other than Vermont and NH, then he's got a problem. 

"However, I estimate that Sanders doesn’t just have to win Iowa. He has to win by a fairly large margin. Why is that? Clinton runs stronger in states with fewer whites than Iowa, which is almost everywhere else. So Iowa is a high-water mark for Sanders, at least for now. My guess is that Sanders has to win by 5 to 10 percentage points in Iowa to be competitive for the nomination. Exactly what he needs is hard to estimate, since a win will also get him more media attention. This could boost him further."

Right now, it's true, he has a considerable lead in NH evidently. There were a few polls that he him up 20 points in the Granite states yesterday.

But then again, was there ever a belief he wouldn't win NH? He has to win NH or it's game over pure and simple.

While he has a big lead in these polls-some other recent polls show it still within single digits and 40 percent of respondents still say they haven't made up their mind.

In addition, if she wins tonight, she could get some momentum on top of a good debate Thursday night and at least make this close-or who knows?

Then she's on to SC and the South where she will do very well.

No question the media loves the Hillary is in trouble narrative right now. But she remains in very good shape.

Just remember to caucus if you're in Iowa and if you have friends or family in Iowa remind them to caucus for her.

P.S. Last night I donated another $50 to Hillary. This was in response to all the talk about how much Bernie raised last month.

If you can spare a few bucks it could be a good time to consider it. We can't assume she has all the money she needs or that she has all the votes she needs! 

No comments:

Post a Comment