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Monday, August 1, 2016

In CNN Poll Hillary Gets a 12 Point Convention Bounce

It clearly confirms what earlier polls have shown:

http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/08/hillary-gets-bigger-bounce-than-trump.html

http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/08/trumps-rnc-does-more-harm-than-good.html

CNN shows a big move towards Hillary:

"Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 9 percentage points in a national CNN/ORC poll out Monday surveying registered voters nationwide in the days after the Democratic National Convention."

"Clinton and her running mate Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine grabbed 52 percent, while 43 percent said they would vote for Trump and Indiana Gov. Mike Pence. Following the Republican National Committee the previous week, Trump led Clinton by three points head-to-head (48 percent to 45 percent) after trailing by seven points earlier in July."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-polling-226528#ixzz4G7P5fD3V

This leaves her at over 50 percent and in the RCP average she's back at a 4 point lead.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Meanwhile, her favorable number has risen to 42% positive, 53% negative. Not great by historical standards, of course, but better than they have been. So the convention, as I suspected, has started the work of repairing her image.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/politics/clinton-trump-deadlocked-in-latest-georgia-poll/415167092?ecmp=wsbtv_social_twitter_sfp

I also notice that Stein's numbers are slipping so maybe more Berners are coming aboard-though they aren't all won yet. 

This Bernie delegate told Jill Stein to leave the Dem convention. 

https://twitter.com/AlanKestrel750/status/760173964417175552

Good on him. 

Joy Reid confirmed what I expected: No, Nina Turner is not considering running on the Green ticket. 

"No, @ninaturner is NOT considering joining the @DrJillStein ticket. I have that from the highest possible source. Nina is a Democrat."

https://twitter.com/JoyAnnReid/status/760171863716814848

In other news, post DNC, Hillary and Trump are now deadlocked in Georgia. Yep, he is expanding the map, alright.

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/politics/clinton-trump-deadlocked-in-latest-georgia-poll/415167092?ecmp=wsbtv_social_twitter_sfp

And this doesn't surprise me, though it is bracing that it's started so soon. Trump is already talking about how this election will probably be 'rigged.'

We'll have more soon. Trump making a big play to lay groundwork to dispute/resist election result with claims of voter fraud.

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/760201758794780673
https://twitter.com/JamilSmith/status/760208666956005376


This, of course, is not surprising but very dangerous regardless of that fact. In our tradition, the loser congratulates the winner and thereby concedes the process was legitimate: 'You beat me fair and square.'

This is already a suggestion that this won't happen if Trump loses.

Which will convince a large chunk of the electorate that the system was rigged. He's going to do some poor man's Bernie stuff.

This only underscores that democracy itself is on the ballot.

Continued vigilance, Hillary lovers.


8 comments:

  1. Mike, I finally see this reflected in the "polls only" default chart at 538. Check out the graph... the change has been VERY steep (I swear that early Sunday morning this same plot was showing 50/50):
    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    ReplyDelete
  2. Yes, Silver talked about that. The NowCast reacts fast to changes.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-bounce-appears-bigger-than-trumps/

    ReplyDelete
  3. I thought this was funny:

    Mr. Republican Unity spent some time in Ohio today going after Ted Cruz. Why? Because nothing matters.

    No, seriously, Donald Trump felt it necessary to bring up the Texas Senator, claiming that he "saved his life" at the Republican National Convention by walking back in the room while Cruz was speaking. That's not all, though, as Trump made it a point to call him a "certain man" and not call him out by name. In a difficult election, it makes sense to go after your own party and not the opposition, if you have the intelligence of a newborn chimpanzee.



    http://www.redstate.com/kylefoley/2016/08/01/polls-show-clinton-lead-trump-rather-go-ted-cruz/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Meanwhile, Trump verbally attacked the fire marshall that saved his ass last week.

      Delete
  4. In their Now Cast, HRC is looking almost as good as she's ever been:
    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now
    That's the one that Harding favored when he posted links to it on his blog in the past.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Yes. They now have her at 82 percent on nowcast. The polls plus only has her at 68 percent. She was more like 75 to 80 percent before James Comey's press conference.

    But she's in the right direction.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Delong RTed this post for me too. Always helps. It's already got 100 readers.

    Not that I haven't been doing pretty well in general lately

    ReplyDelete
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