Monday, August 15, 2016

Trump's Campaigning in NY, CA, and Connecticut Bears Fruit

I mean he's only down 25 points in new NY poll. Clearly expanding the map.

"Democrat Hillary Clinton continues to enjoy a commanding lead in the presidential race in New York, according to a Siena Research Institute poll of registered voters conducted last week."

"She’s beating Republican Donald Trump by 57-27 in a one-on-one matchup and 50-25 when third-party candidates are factored in. And while her favorability rating continues to be low — 51 percent of voters view her favorably and 46 percent unfavorably — it’s far better than Trump’s 24-72."

"Those numbers are to be expected, because the state both candidates call home is solidly blue. What is surprising, however, is how poorly Trump is polling among members of his own party in his home state, according to the poll. He enjoys the support of barely half of New York’s Republicans, which has the potential to inflict serious damage on other Republicans running in New York in November."

"Clinton’s support among New York’s Democrats is comparable to the numbers President Barack Obama received at this point in both of his presidential campaigns. In a Siena poll conducted during Obama’s first campaign, Democrats planned to vote for him over Sen. John McCain 77-12. Four years later, Democrats planned to vote for him by a margin of 83-14."

"The poll released Monday found Clinton at 81-10 among Democrats."

"In August 2008, McCain had the backing of New York Republicans by a margin of 69-16 over Obama at this point in the cycle. In 2012, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney was winning his fellow Republicans 65-31."

"As of late June, Trump’s support was similar: Siena found him at 68-21 among the GOP."

"But over the following six weeks, his support among New York Republicans plummeted."

"When only Clinton and Trump were named in the poll, 55 percent of Republicans said they’d vote for him, with 24 percent choosing to back the former secretary of state and 9 percent saying they won’t vote. (Only 3 percent of Democrats said they don’t plan on casting a ballot)."

"Trump's numbers are worse when third-party candidates included. In that scenario, only 52 percent of Republicans said they planned to vote for Trump, 20 percent would back Clinton, and 9 percent said they would support Libertarian Gary Johnson. Even Jill Stein of the Green Party got 4 percent of Republicans."

"Trump's polling among Republicans was lackluster on a variety of issues. Only half said he’d be better than Clinton on “addressing tensions between the police and communities of color,” 53 percent think he’d make a better commander-in-chief, and 56 percent believe he’d work better with Congress."

Read more:

Imagine how bad he'd be doing if he wasn't campaigning there.

But here's the real good news for Hillary and friends:

"The failing @nytimes, which never spoke to me, keeps saying that I am saying to advisers that I will change. False, I am who I am-never said."

Keep doing you, Mr. Trump.

In other news, Hillary is even leading in an unskewed poll:

She does very well among the educated:

"College-Educated Segment Nationally: Clinton 59 (+25) Trump 34 Bloomberg Obama won college graduates by 2% in '12."

"Trump is only up by 10 among his favorite people, the poorly educated"

"Non College Graduates, Nationally: Trump 52 (+10) Clinton 42 Bloomberg Poll FYI: Obama won non college graduates by 4% in 2012"

Gary May couldn't be more wrong:
"The Presidential Debates Will Almost Surely Decide the Election."

"Beginning with the televised debate between John Kennedy and Richard Nixon, the perceived winner of the presidential debates has gone on to occupy the White House."

"Barring some unforeseen event, such as a serious terrorist attack at home, the decisive event that will determine who wins the 2016 presidential election is almost certainly going to be the series of debates between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. beginning on September 26 at New York’s Hofstra University."

So is May arguing that nothing that happens prior to the debates matter? You can argue about the 'perceived winner' of debates but what is clear is that those who lead in the polls two weeks post convention go on to win the White House.

And Obama is widely seen as bombing the first debate in 2012 as did W in 2004. We have not seen an example of where someone like Hillary leads wire to wire until the debates and then everything is upended. The debates are not that important. They certainly can't overcome everything that has happened the last year.

The pundits want to hype interest in the debates. They don't want to just admit that Hillary is a clear favorite in the race now. But this is what reality shows.

Unless Trump suddenly decides he's not who he is I don't see how the debates change anything.

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