Friday, August 19, 2016

Trump Doesn't Have the Silent Majority, but a Noisy Minority

Trump says that if he loses it means the election was rigged as he has the biggest crowds.

Of course, Bernie also had big crowds. You know who also did? George McGovern and Walter Mondale, two guys who each lost the elction 49-1.

As Matt Yglesias puts it, focusing on crowd size is sort of like the Roger Ailes way at Fox.

"Ailes’s big insight about the news business was that cable changed everything."

"Old-time broadcast television news operating according to the principle of scarcity. There were only three networks to watch, and they all did nightly newscasts at the exact same time. With a limited supply of possible things to turn into, cultivating intense loyalists had little value. The important thing was just to get as broad a slice of the pie as possible by being as inoffensive as possible."

"On cable with dozens and then hundreds of channels, things were different. Fox News might compete in some sense with CNN. But it equally competes with USA and HGTV and ESPN and everything else out there. In a world of plentiful channels, it really doesn’t matter if some people absolutely despise Fox News. Indeed, it doesn’t really matter if most people absolutely despise Fox News. What counts is that some people have to love it."

"Trump’s campaign has precisely this property. His supporters often point to the unusually large size of the crowds he attracts to his rallies as evidence that a silent majority out there stands in support of him. But the original point about Nixon’s silent majority was the exact opposite of this. Many more people vote in any given presidential election than show up to a rally of any kind. Drawing big crowds shows that you have an unusually large number of superfans — exactly what you need to thrive in the highly competitive world of modern media."

So Trump is actually the opposite of the Silent Majority.

Evan McMullin the anti Trump Republican who also may be running:

The presidency is a serious job. This morning's news reports show yet again that Donald Trump is unworthy of our nation's highest office."


  1. "Evan McMullin the anti Trump Republican who also may be running:"

    No, he's definitely running. He's on the ballot in at least one state now (I think Utah) and he's actively being promoted by Rick Wilson and similar types.

  2. I know he intends to run. One state.. There are 49 others, though Utah is a good one as it could throw it to Hillary.

    Although she is getting support that would normally be for GOPers