Friday, August 26, 2016

Upshot Now Has Hillary With a 90% Chance of Being Next POTUS

A 90% chance is pretty strong.

"The Upshot’s elections model suggests that Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency, based on the latest state and national polls. A victory by Mr. Trump remains quite possible: Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same as the probability that an N.F.L. kicker misses a field goal from the 20-yard line."

In other words, her chances of winning are that of a good NFL kicker hitting a 'chip shot field goal.

And even the GOPers seem to think she's going to win.

"GOP plots early wake-up call for Clinton."

"Looking past Election Day, Republicans sketch plan to stymie a President Hillary Clinton agenda."

"Hillary Clinton has managed to win support from Republicans without conceding any part of the progressive economic agenda she outlined during the Democratic primary."

"But with fall approaching and momentum on Clinton’s side, Democrats and Republicans alike are looking over the horizon to a thornier reality: if elected, Clinton would likely become the first Democrat since Grover Cleveland to enter office without control of both houses of Congress."

"That means the bipartisan show of support she has now -- thanks to Donald Trump and the “alt-right,” conspiracy-driven campaign Clinton attacked Thursday in Reno -- is likely to evaporate as soon as the race is called. If she wins the presidency, Clinton would likely enjoy the shortest honeymoon period of any incoming commander-in-chief in recent history, according to Washington strategists, confronting major roadblocks to enacting her ambitious agenda, as well as Republican attacks that have been muted courtesy of the GOP nominee."

“It will be the defining fact of her presidency,” Jonathan Cowan, president of the moderate think tank Third Way, said of Clinton's problem of entering office with a divided Congress. “It’s unprecedented."

"President Obama and former President Bill Clinton both enjoyed at least two years of a Democratic majority in Congress when they entered the White House, a period when they were able to enact major portions of their agendas."

Read more:

So GOPers are already planning to give her no honeymoon.

But I think it's way too early to know how it all goes. Assuming the Dems are going to win the Senate that is the big part of what is needed in any case. For her simply to make federal appointments and especially put three or four liberals on the Supreme Court that could give us a liberal era as there was a conservative era from Reagan till the start of Obama's second term.

The clear end of the conservative era was when Antonin Scalia passed away.

In addition why be so negative? At every step of the way it's as if the media is always giving dark warnings about how everything will go wrong for Hillary. This was the mantra in the primary and she beat Bernie by double digits and 4 million votes. We heard the same thing with the general-she's such a 'bad candidate' and she's beating Trump going away.

Both Bill and Obama had two years and then gridlock the last six. Maybe the rhythm of her's goes in some different unexpected way.

As for the GOPers we'll see. They're warning that they're holding their fire for now with the Trump threat:

"At the same time, many Republicans who have aligned themselves with Clinton say they feel like they have been “holding their fire” -- and that ends Nov. 9"

“In any other election, the majority of national security Republicans would be going after her, and I would be enthusiastically doing so,” said Kori Schake, a veteran of George W. Bush’s National Security Council and State Department, and an adviser to Sen. John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign. “She wasn’t a particularly good secretary of state, the lack of judgement on emails was a shock to a lot of us. She rightly criticized the Bush administration for its failures creating stability in Iraq -- and made the exact same mistake herself on Libya.”

"Schake is on the long and growing list of Republicans who have said they plan to support Clinton this fall. But many of those Republicans for Hillary don’t want a vote against Trump to be confused with any newfound love for Clinton."

“A lot of us would like to hold her accountable for the failures, but we are holding our fire,” Schake said. “It's because all of us are afraid of Trump. If she wants to maintain our support after, she’s going to have to address our policy concerns about the economy and America’s role in the world.”

"For now, Clinton has stuck to her primary promises of raising taxes on the wealthy and overhauling corporate taxes to pay for initiatives like paid family leave and debt-free college."

"Republican strategist Tim Miller, Jeb Bush’s former communications director turned anti-Trump activist, has found himself in an odd position this cycle: the unlikely darling of Democrats gleeful at his taunting of Trump. He finds that perplexing."

“I would love to be working against Hillary Clinton right now, but it’s a strange year,” said Miller. “The cannons have been lowered against her because of our candidate. Hillary Clinton, being a multi-decade partisan who fought tooth and nail with Republicans and called them her enemy, is uniquely ill-suited to having a honeymoon period if she wins.”

"He noted that next year, the focus will be on her domestic agenda, “which is not in any way bipartisan.”

Read more:

But again, it's tough to predict. Assuming the GOP holds the House, it makes a difference how large their majority is. They're expected to lose some seats.

So they exact numbers will matter. If the Dems pick up 20 seats she'll have a bigger mandate than if they pick up 4 seats.

Beyond that I think something Scott Sumner said a few months ago may be right. That the GOP in 2009 was Germany post WWI. The 2017 GOP will be Germany post WWII.

They will be chastened having nominated someone this horrendous. I think the chance that at least some in the party become a little more introspective is at least possible.

My working theory for now is that there will be at least three distinct wings of the Republican party.

1. Donald Trump wing

2. Ted Cruz wing

3. Paul Ryan wing

Each wing will blame the other two for the debacle. If Trump loses badly as is quite plausible the other two wings will no doubt claim that the Trump wing is totally discredited.

But the Trump wing will blame the other two for not supporting him. They will claim that the GOP Establishment sunk Trump.

Sean Hannity is already making this argument.

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