Sunday, August 28, 2016

Trump's Task: Turning a Tanker Around in 73 Days

Upshot now gives Hillary a 90% chance at being our next President. As Upshot says, that's about the chances an NFL level kicker makes a chip shot field goal of 20 yards.

As his pollster and chief surrogate Kellyann Conway admits, Trump's chances are about as good as turning around a tanker in 73 days. 

"The Republican nominee — three months after clinching the nomination — has begun frantically trying to reposition himself in the last week, installing a new campaign manager and controversial CEO to help him escape the straitjacket that his 14 months of incendiary comments and hard-edged policy positions have him in."

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Ok, this is a pet peeve. He has not changed his immigration position though he's tried to spin it this way. Just yesterday he promised deportations within one hour of being inaugurated.

The media is letting itself get roiled. In truth he still is for deportations. What's missed is that 'touchback amnesty' is consistent with deportations. Logically if even 'the good ones' aren't deported first, how is it touchback?

"ICYMI: Immigration experts are going insane trying to figure out Trump's policy. That's because there isn't one yet."

This is where you see how right Josh Marshall is in arguing that the thing to remember is most Beltway pundits just aren't very bright.

There is one and it's the same as it ever was. The beat goes on, same as it ever was.

1. Deport the 12 million.

2. Maybe bring the good ones back after.

In other words, touchback amnesty. Maybe. Or maybe they don't come back. Either way Trump at that point would have total power.

But I digress.

In truth Trump has less than 73 days as early voting is starting soon.

"Trump may not have that kind of time. Early voting begins in 28 days in Minnesota and in 32 other states soon after that. And already as summer inches to its end, 90 percent of Americans say they’ve decided. For all the televised daily drama this race has provided, the final outcome itself is shaping up to be less dramatic than any presidential election since 1984."

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I believe roughly 25% of the vote will happen in early voting. What is not appreciated is that for the Hillary campaign is that election day itself is not the be all and end all.

Less dramatic than any election since 1984. Let's hope so. Mondale had 41%. Does Trump get that much?

Mondale like Trump had huge crowds.

If you look at this race from the bird's eye view, it's even clearer that this is the least dramatic election since 1984.

She has led on average by about 6 points since May. He never led, though he did tie briefly after winning the primary in early May and after July RNC convention but before the DNC.

There is no precedence for a candidate trailing from wire to wire and by this margin coming back. What's more in both 2012 and 2008, Obama won by at least 40% larger margins on election day than his average polling lead.

UPDATE: Bruce Bartlett:

"I think there will be a tidal wave of people in the Republican establishment attacking Trump after Labor Day. Off the sinking ship."

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