Sunday, August 14, 2016

Hillary up 9 in NH; 5 in Florida; Only Down by 4 in Georgia

Is this election over? I guess it's what you assume. Sam Stein:

"If you assume that Colo, Va, Pennsylvania and NH are off the board — as #s suggest — then the election’s over."

"Clinton is ahead by 9 or more states totaling 273 electoral votes. (She's also ahead in plenty of other states like FL, OH, NC by less.)"

"Democrat Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump in both Florida and New Hampshire, according to the latest wave of the YouGov/CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker. Clinton is even within striking distance of Trump in the traditionally red state of Georgia."

"Among likely voters in the always key battleground state of Florida, Clinton leads Trump by five points, 45% to 40% – her biggest lead yet in a state Barack Obama won by less than one percentage point in 2012. Clinton holds a wider, nine-point lead in New Hampshire, where she garners 45% against 36% who support her Republican opponent."

"In Georgia, a traditionally red state that last voted for a Democrat in 1992, Trump leads by four points, with 45% against Clinton’s 41%."

"Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson takes 5% in all three states, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein takes between 1% and 3%."

"All three polls suggest Clinton is running a few points ahead of Obama’s 2012 performance, when he won Florida by one point and New Hampshire by six, but lost Georgia by eight. The lead in Florida may be most significant; a win there would all but close Trump’s path to 270 electoral votes."

But again, with Colorado, NH, PA, and Virginia, she doesn't need Florida.

Perhaps this is why Trump is running against the media now.

"My rallies are not covered properly by the media. They never discuss the real message and never show crowd size or enthusiasm."

Usually you don't here this sort of blame the refs stuff-or unskew the polls till late October.

"If the disgusting and corrupt media covered me honestly and didn't put false meaning into the words I say, I would be beating Hillary by 20%"

Sure you would, Mr. Trump.

Time magazine puts the choice succinctly.

The other thing to watch is the GOP try to blame this all on Trump.

"If Trump loses, will be easy for GOP to call it a fluke. But demographic trends mean a lot of these states will be even tougher next time."

They are going to argue that Trump was just a really bad candidate-which is inarguable as far as it goes. But this lets the party off the hook and denies the longer term, secular problems it faces.

Nate Silver gets the last word:

"No recovery yet for Trump. Down to 11% chance per our polls-only forecast, his low on the year. 21% per polls-plus."


  1. Mike, I assume you're going to do a piece on the fact that Trump's been bashing media especially NYT all weekend... and surprise surprise NYT does piece on Manafort having been paid 12.7 Million by Ukrainian pro-Putin oligarchs. Trump clearly was called by Times for comment on the story before it was released, so he could wind up and start slamming them.

    Then we find out that Ivanka and Wendy Deng (Murdoch's ex-wife) are vacationing together in Croatia now, and surprise surprise Deng is now Putin's GF??? WTF???? Bwahahahahaha!

    Maybe we should ask Scott "Landslide" Adams, super-genius, what kind of 3D chess move this is???

    Also fun fact: Corey Lewindowsky tweets about NYT Manafort story seconds after it's posted. Hahaha! Stabs PoS Manafort (his replacement) in the back. Great!

    Also GOP congressman and Appalachian Trail aficionado Mark Sanford is demanding Trump release tax returns. Good for him, but what about others? Ryan, McConnell, McCain, Mike Lee, Cruz, Graham, Peter King, Rubio, etc, etc, etc... are they #ManafortTraitor (what I'm trying to get trending on twitter) type cowards (i.e. traitors, who'd sell the US down the river to Russian mob and Putin) or are they patriots??? Common GOP, **DEMAND TO SEE THE TAXES**!!!

  2. Yes I loved that move by Corey.

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