Thursday, August 18, 2016

I Will not Lie to You

These are the words of Dana Perino, George W. Bush's former Press Secretary:

"Many of you write, wanting me to tell you GOOD things about the gop chances this year. I wish I could do that. But I WILL NOT LIE TO YOU."

Speaking of lying, a lot of Trump supporters are already lying to themselves.

Brian Stelter:

"From last night's @AC360: Some, not all, but some Trump supporters sound like they're in denial about the polls."

There is already an unskewed polls website. The saddest part was when Breitbart and Gravis Marketing got together for an unskewed poll that showed Hillary up by 5 nationally.

Just for some context for Gravis, they had Hillary only up by 6 against Bernie Sanders in the Maryland primary.

I do hear some happy talk from some Trump campaign operatives. Michael Steele was on Lawrence O'Donnell last night and actually said 'You know he's been outspent $60 million to zero and had the worst six weeks anyone has ever had and he's only down by 9 in Pennsylvania and 11 in Colorado.'

Give him credit for impressive spin. But I thought Trump was Teflon. He didn't need to advertise at all, just be Donald Trump and win via media dominance.

Being down by 9 in states like Virginia and Pennsylvania is awful: they're supposed to be swing states. On what planet could this be a positive indicator?

What would Trump have to be down for a Michael Steele to be honest like Dana Perino? 90 points? Would nothing short of that disprove the Teflon illusion?

Karen Tumulty once and for all shoots the death nell at the big crowds illusion.

"Are big rallies proof that sagging polls are wrong? McGovern got a crowd of 50K six days before he lost 49 states."

An interesting reply to her:

"Also, Mondale drew 100K in NYC before dropping 49 states to Reagan. …

Crowds really don't prove anything as far as who is going to win the election as Bernie learned in the primary.

Indeed. crowds are almost a counter indicator based on the data.

P.S. Trump lawyer, Michael Cohen, has given us all a lot of levity with his 'What polls' denial.

But remember he's also the 'You can't rape your wife' guy.

"Late to the Michael Cohen party but just want to point out he's the same guy who thinks you can't rape your spouse."

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