Monday, August 22, 2016

Hillary Up 46-40 in Ohio

She has 90% of Democrats supporting her while Trump has just 79% of GOPers. He also continues to have no positive relationship with GOP Governor John Kasich.

"In Ohio, which is so critical to Donald Trump’s electoral fortunes, it is Hillary Clinton who has extended her lead and is now up six points, 46 percent to 40 percent; she was up four points in July. Clinton has made gains among women, and remains bolstered by a nearly-unified Democratic base. She wins 90 percent of Democrats, while Trump remains hampered by just enough reluctant Republicans: He’s at 79 percent of GOPers."

"In Iowa, the two are even, each with 40 percent support. This is the only state in recent polling that doesn’t show Clinton with an outright lead. In some ways, the tie there just spotlights Trump’s difficulty breaking out beyond his base, more generally. Iowa has many older voters and Trump does well with them."

"In Iowa, as in Ohio, older voters say that American life is changing for the worse. However Trump is struggling with younger voters, the youngest of whom are the most likely to disagree with that assessment. Trump continues to do his best with white voters, but he struggles with African American voters in Ohio -- as in other states -- and in what has amounted to trouble for him in other states like Arizona and Florida, he does poorly with Hispanic voters."

"The poll asked people what it would take to get them to reconsider Trump, if they aren’t currently voting for him. While there aren’t a lot of people who said that anything could make them rethink the contest – fewer than one in five – there are enough people that Trump could potentially make some inroads. Their top answer is that Trump convinces them he is “prepared to be commander-in-chief.” This may not be a surprise, given that this metric is the one that has cost Trump the most in recent polling across many states. (In this survey of Ohio, just 35 percent feel he is prepared.) And 17 percent of those not with him might reconsider if he “apologizes to people he has offended” – though that sets up a balancing act for him because other recent polls have suggested his current supporters would not see any such needs."

Maybe Kellyanne Conway was looking at that data point in having Trump apologize or at least 'express regret.'

Of course, it wasn't a real apology.

Another group Trump is doing very poorly with: business economists.

U.S. business economists on which candidate would best manage the economy: Clinton 55% Johnson (!) 15% Trump 14%

The exclamation point is that Trump trails even Johnson. He also has trailed Johnson and Jill Stein among AA voters.

"Mr. Trump’s hostility to trade deals like the North American Free Trade Agreement and his calls to deport illegal immigrants may be costing him support among economists. In the NABE survey, 65% said U.S. trade policy should be more open and free versus 9% who said it should be more protectionist. Only 8% said the U.S. should deport all unauthorized immigrants while 64% backed a program to legalize undocumented immigrants already living in the U.S."

The NABE survey also found that 62% of business economists said uncertainty about the election is holding back economic growth at least somewhat, versus 35% who didn’t see election-related uncertainty as a headwind for the economy. That’s in line with the 57% of business and academic economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this month who said the economy has suffered due to election-related uncertainty."

I'm sure his talk of maybe defaulting on US debt as a bargaining chip isn't doing much for them either.

To underscore how disastrous a Trump economy would be, he's got Sam Brownback advising him on the economy. 

"As The Kansas Economy Dies, Trump Appoints Gov. Sam Brownback As Advisor."

"In a normal political environment, a national candidate seeking a model of what their proposed policies would produce would certainly choose a winner. However, this is no more a normal political environment than an elephant is quantum-sized, and the state of Kansas is no more an economic winner than Donald Trump is a quiet and thoughtful deep thinker."

"This column has spent a fair number of words over the past couple of years defaming Kansas Governor Sam Brownback for the damage he’s wrought on the ignoramus Kansas residents that keep voting for him. Brownback has inflicted such an incredible amount of economic devastation on the state due to his adherence and allegiance to the Ronald Reagan-era disaster known as ‘trickle down’ economics, that even George W. Bush’s Commerce Secretary said he is terrified of what a Trump economy would do to the country and is happily voting for Hillary Clinton."

"Brownback boasted that as governor, he would prove once and for all that if the Republican economic agenda was fully implemented in Kansas, the entire nation would see what truly glorious prosperity would look like."

"Thus far, Brownback’s glorious experiment looks like massive debt, credit downgrades, hospital closures, drastically underfunded schools, massive healthcare cuts, raided budgets, perpetual revenue shortfalls, and as reported this week, massive job losses. Most Americans comprehend that in Republicans’ minds, closing schools, hospitals, allowing roads to deteriorate, and massive debt is not a bad thing, and they justify those atrocities as necessary sacrifices to develop a job-creating Utopia. In fact, Governor Sam Brownback pledged to Kansas residents that his brilliant ‘trickle down’ scheme would create at a minimum 2,000 jobs a month; and that was just the start."

"Well this week it was revealed that not only has Kansas not created 2,000 jobs each month, the jobs losses in Kansas are increasing each month. And stunningly, Donald Trump is telling audiences across the nation that when he is president he will bless the entire country with “the Kansas solution;” all in spite of the growing data that Kansas economy is in its death throes."

Well Michelle Bachman is advising him on foreign policy...

P.S. Greg Sargent:

Evidence is mounting that Trump really is laying groundwork for a white nationalist media empire."

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