Wednesday, July 13, 2016

The Trump Threat is Real but Stick to the Averages

Certainly I could have done without those Quinnipiac polls first thing in the morning that shows Trump tied or leading in Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio.

But panic is never the solution and we should never get too worked up in the face of outlier polls.

Greg Sargent reminds us to stick to the averages:

"TRUMP WINNING IN FLORIDA AND PENNSYLVANIA? A new batch of Quinnipiac polls finds that Donald Trump is beating Hillary Clinton in Florida by 42-39 and in Pennsylania by 43-41, while it’s tied in Ohio at 41-41. But that would mean Clinton lost eight points of support in Florida from last month, while Trump gained three points — a huge swing."

"Meanwhile, the Q-polls are out of sync with the polling averages, which have Clinton up by three in Florida, five in Pennsylvania, and three in Ohio. Stick to the averages, folks."

Indeed. Hillary's campaign manager, Brian Fallon:

"We know the battlegrounds are going to be close til the end. That's why we need to keep working so hard. Trump is a serious danger, folks."

Ideally, you never want to panic-or get complacent, though fighting one temptation often leads you to the other.

In other news, Harry Enten argues that Bernie's fullthroated endorsement may help among his most anti Hillary supporters.

"Bernie Sanders endorsed Hillary Clinton for president on Tuesday, but a lot of people have argued that Sanders squandered political capital by waiting so long after the final primaries to get behind the presumptive nominee. Indeed, Clinton’s favorability among Sanders’s primary voters is rising, and the vast majority of Sanders’s voters are already backing her. But the same polling also shows a smaller bloc of Sanders supporters still reluctant to get behind Clinton. Sanders’s endorsement, in other words, might still be helpful to Clinton."

"Roughly 1 in 5 Sanders supporters say they are going to vote for a third-party candidate. Gary Johnson and Jill Stein combined for 22 percent of the vote among Sanders’s supporters in a recent NBC/WSJ survey and 21 percent in a recent Suffolk University survey. Johnson won 17 percent of Sanders backers in a Pew Research Center poll (the poll did not test Stein). The average third-party support among Sanders’s voters in the three surveys, 20 percent, is significantly higher than the 13 percent of all voters who say they’d back Johnson or Stein. (Younger voters, who voted for Sanders in overwhelming numbers in the primary, are also far more likely to say they’d choose a third-party option or “someone else,” according to these surveys and a new poll from the University of Chicago with the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.)"

Most of the #FeelTheBerners who now say they’ll go third party would otherwise be backing Clinton:

"Whereas Clinton beats Trump by an average of 57 percentage points among Sanders’s supporters when third-party candidates are mentioned, she wins by 69 percentage points when these voters are forced to choose between Clinton and Trump. This may not seem like too big of a deal given that Clinton is winning overwhelmingly in both scenarios. Perhaps, it won’t be. But given that there were over 13 million people who voted for Sanders in the primary and the 12 percentage point swing mentioned above, Clinton could net somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.6 million votes if the Sanders supporters currently backing third-party options all voted for either Clinton or Trump."

"Of course, Sanders’s supporters are not going to vote for Clinton just because Sanders tells them to. But we’re talking about a very specific group of Sanders’s voters who have already shown a willingness to choose Clinton over Trump. I’m not sure that there’s a better person to aid in persuading them to vote for Clinton than Sanders himself. If Sanders throws his full weight behind Clinton’s candidacy combined with the tendency, at least historically, of voters abandoning third-party candidates as Election Day approaches, it’s not difficult to imagine Clinton could net well over a million votes. If the election ends up being close, Sanders’s help to Clinton could be the difference between her winning and losing."

Logic tells us that his endorsement has to at least help some-the question is how much?

That it was so strong and unequivocal certainly helped. If Enten's numbers are right it will help a lot. A million additional voters are nothing to sneeze at.

No comments:

Post a Comment