Tuesday, July 26, 2016

After GOP Convention, Hillary Still Leads Economist Poll, 47-42

It's been taken as an article of faith that Trump got a bounce. He clearly did in a CNN poll. But this is why you stick to the averages. Other polls show something different. CBS showed little bounce.

And he got no bounce in the Morning Consult poll

"Donald Trump received no significant bounce following the Republican National Convention, according to the latest NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll. Hillary Clinton still leads Trump by a single point: 46 percent to 45 percent. These numbers are unchanged from last week."

"The Trump-Mike Pence ticket saw a modest boost in favorability among Republicans. Independents — the true persuadable voters — were less than enthusiastic about what they saw or heard about the GOP convention, according to the weekly tracking poll, conducted online from July 18 through July 24 among 12,931 adults who say they are registered to vote."

Ted Cruz is taking flack:

"Trump, who was looking at the convention as a way to unify the Republican Party, seemed to get a boost in favorability among Republicans this past week. Overall, Trump's approval rating among all Republicans for the week stood at 79 percent. Among Republicans who followed convention events, an even higher 85 percent said they view Trump favorably. This is up from two weeks ago, when 70 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaners said they view the nominee favorably."

"Ted Cruz, who scored a strong round of boos when he declined to endorse Trump in his speech to the RNC, was not viewed kindly by Republicans voters. Though Cruz finished second in the GOP primary race, just 28 percent of members of his own party now view him favorably; 68 percent now view him unfavorably. Clearly, his performance at the GOP convention was not received well by his party."

However, this is the kicker and if accurate means Trump didn't do so great:

"Though the partisan differences in reactions are largely unsurprising, the reaction of Independents matter a great deal for both parties' abilities to win in the general election in November. Clinton and Trump have remained largely competitive among this non-partisan segment of voters for the past few weeks; however, favor swung toward Clinton by 5 points in this week's horserace numbers. This margin may be attributable to their less-than-enthusiastic reception of the GOP convention last week. Democrats are convening in Philadelphia this week for the party's national convention."

"Trump's convention speech, which was received well by Republicans watching the event, did not sit as well with Independents. Just 30 percent of Independents who watched the speech said it was excellent or good, 29 percent said it was "just okay" and a 40 percent plurality said it was poor or terrible."

Ouch. Then there was that Economist tracking poll.

"YouGov/Economist Weekly Tracking Poll: 2-way Clinton 47% (+2) Trump 42% (+1)"

So this shows HRC with a 1 point bounce despite the RNC convention.

Again, stick the averages. The average at RCP has it about dead even while Huff Pollster still has her up by a whisker.

On a polls only FiveThirtyEight forecast Hillary still retains an almost 54 percent likelihood to win.

Stick to the averages and remember the Dems are up at bat now. My guess is she gets a solid bounce out of this.

As for Trump's bounce? From the RCP average you might extrapolate that it went from a Hillary 3 point lead to a tie. So a 3 point bounce.


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