Thursday, July 28, 2016

If the More Optimistic Candidate Wins, Hillary Wins in a Landslide

In American politics the more optimistic candidate usually wins.

The candidate with more party unity usually wins too. In either case the Dems hit it out of the park.

The Dems are an amazingly unified party in 2016.

Similarly the Dems are telling a very optimistic story. Yes, we have some real problems. Yes, while we recovered from 2008 we're still hardly where we need to be yet in terms of wages and standards of living.

But we are not a pessimistic, fearful, cynical country and we can meet these challenges as we're 'stronger together.'

The Dems are the party that makes Americans feel good about their country again. The GOP tells a tale of dystopia and woe.

Chuck Todd:

"As soon as President Obama finished his speech here Wednesday night, it was immediately clear that Donald Trump and Republicans made a fundamental mistake by abandoning a hopeful, optimistic message in Cleveland. And Obama and the Democrats seized that message. "America is already great. America is already strong," Obama declared. "Ronald Reagan called America 'a shining city on a hill.' Donald Trump calls it 'a divided crime scene' that only he can fix.It doesn't matter to him that illegal immigration and the crime rate are as low as they've been in decades, because he's not actually offering any real solutions to those issues. He's just offering slogans, and he's offering fear."

"Vice President Joe Biden added, "We do not scare easy. We never bow, we never bend, we never break when confronted with crisis. We endure, we overcome, and we always, always, always move forward." Former George W. Bush spokesman Tony Fratto tweeted, "Watching Democrats talk about America the way Republican candidates used to talk about America." Oof. Over the last seven and a half years, Republicans have criticized Obama for not believing in American exceptionalism. But last night, Obama and the Democrats owned the optimistic message about the country,"

Meanwhile, more good news for Hillary and the Dems. In my last post, I noted that she was now leading by a point in a Rasmussen poll-of all polls, none have a bigger GOP house effect.

Nate Silver says his model is a trend chaser. But I seem to have noted it before him. If Hillary Clinton leads in Rasmuessen this gives us a strong signal that maybe Hillary Clinton is leading.

And now a Suffolk poll comes out with her leading by 9 points in a must win state for Trump, Pennsylvania.

Her lead is the same with or without third party candidates. In a head to head Hillary is now at 50 percent. But even with the two third party candidates she's at 46 percent.

Suffolk has more good news for Dems: Katie McGinty leads Pat Toomey by 7 points.

The averages show it a dead heat. In a Quinnipiac poll in early July Tommey lead by 10.

The Cook Political Report has Dems picking up 5 to 15 seats in the House.


  1. Erickson says he thinks he say evidence of the Dems making a play for Republicans:

    That is effective stuff for Republicans. The Democrats are going to try to make a play at the middle now. They won’t get those who are strongly pro-life. But the moderate suburbanites who don’t go to church on Sunday, but vote Republican because of taxes may just decide Clinton is the safer bet.

    1. BTW, that also explains why he'll never vote for HRC (he's strongly anti-abortion and he goes to church on Sunday). It's almost like he's giving the other Republicans permission to vote for her though.

  2. And Neil Stevens explains why it's better for Republicans for Trump to lose:

    That's his path to victory, and that's why he must lose. That's why America is better off if he loses. If he wins, then we'll have two left-wing parties in America, and conservatives will have no vehicle, and no voice, to stand athwart socialism and cronyism. If he loses, at least we have a chance to pick up the pieces and resume our fight to Make DC Listen.

  3. John Oliver on Colbert last night made fun of Tim Kaine. And D. L. Hughley said his speech was "boring as shit" which made Maher laugh on his show. I actually liked his speech though, and I didn't think he was boring. A little low key perhaps, but that's part of what I like about him. Looking at the headlines he gets mixed reviews. I think he's going to grow on people though. Bill's conservative guest liked Kaine.

    One thing that Oliver (who made fun of Kaine for entirely too long IMO, but at least he wasn't super mean about it) said was pretty funny though: he said he (Oliver) is now a "Kainiac."

    I actually am a Kainiac come to think of it.

  4. Kaine is an inspired choice. He's not meant to appeal to Bernie bros. The point of Obama's speech-remember Kaine was Obama's choice-is not solely ideological.

    It's' not the Holy War for progressive values some on the Left want.

    Kaine is a progressive-he's very strong on the Social Gospel-but he's someone who also has a lot of friends and well wishers on the GOP side in Congress.

    The Dem convention is a reach to the middle too, not just a progressive version of Ted Cruz

    1. I suspect Kaine will do really well in a debate against Pence. He can keep Pence on his back foot by forcing him to defend Trump's nuttier statements, or the fact that Trump has reversed himself so many times.

    2. Pence doesn't have that kind of ammunition to use against Kaine, plus I think Kaine will come off as the more likable one.

    3. All Pence can do is repeat ad nauseum: "Benghazi Benghazi email email Benghazi email!'

    4. ... and people will be SICK of hearing that at some point. There's no shortage of Trump material to cover.

    5. Yes, Jennifer Rubin made this point too. Demonizing Hillary is not enough.

      I guess I quoted this in this piece too. LOL

      But point is, voters want to hear something optimistic.

  5. Mike, did you see these two "Republicans for Hillary" speakers at the convention?

    Doug Elmets is a Republican for Hillary. Voting for a Democrat for the 1st time. Part of Reagan's staff.

    Jennifer Pierottilim
    "Republican Women for Hillary" Co-founder

    I think I'll look for them on Twitter and tweet them some words of appreciation.

    1. Should be "Jennifer Pierotti Lim" ... but I think you already figured that out.

    2. Yes, I wrote about them. And you commented. LOL