Sunday, July 31, 2016

Looks Like a DNC Bounce

Nate Cohn says based on a bounce in Obama's popularity, it looks like a DNC bounce.

Obama approval now at 54% in Gallup--tied for highest since early 2013. Looks like a DNC bump.

Nor does Cohn believe it's necessarily temporary.

"An observation: in both 2004 and 2012, the conventions lifted the president's approval and it never really fell back

Huffpollster now has HRC up by 4 points in average.

We haven't seen enough polling yet-and usually you get a better idea after the weekend on a bounce, but it is looking like she got a decent bounce. 

Pollfish, who use a different model show Trump getting zero bounce at the RNC and HRC getting a sizable one. 

"The Pollfish survey, a weekly survey of 1,000 American voters, shows a very different trend from the general election polling of traditional surveys. Pollfish showed no Republican Convention bounce for Donald Trump and a solid Democratic Convention bounce for Hillary Clinton. In contrast, traditional polling, aggregated on Huffington Post’s Pollster, showed a bump for Trump of historically average magnitude coming out of his convention. We are still waiting for the polling from the Democratic Convention, which will come out in the next few days."

Let's hope Pollfish has the best model!

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