Thursday, July 28, 2016

Hillary Clinton Leads 43-42 in New Rasmussen Poll!

According to Nate Silver and friends Trump got a modest convention bounce. Though, interestingly, more people said they are less likely than more likely to vote for Trump after that convention then before.

For the Clinton campaign, Night Three went about as well as it could have hoped -- it featured some of the most credible Democratic and independent voices (Obama, Biden, Bloomberg). And so if this convention can't move numbers for Clinton, it's hard to see if anything will."

Nate Silver explains why FiveThirtyEight has been more bullish on Trump lately: their model responds to trends more quickly than other models.

"Bottom line: Although there are other factors that matter around the margin, our models show better numbers for Trump mostly because they’re more aggressive about detecting trends in polling data. For the past couple of weeks — and this started before the conventions, so it’s not just a convention bounce — there’s been a strong trend away from Clinton and toward Trump. Although there’s always the risk of overreaction, this time our models were ahead of the curve in understanding the shift. But if Clinton rebounds next month, our models may be among the first to show that as well."

That short term trend may well have been about Hillary's emails and the whole phony furor. Arguably. James Comey himself waded too far into politics.

But this was less a move to Trump than a loss for Hillary. In other words in the short term the news pushed some away from her rather than to Trump.

However, there may be a new trend for Silver's model to chase. A Rasmussen poll came out this morning that shows her up by 1. 43-42.

To me if Hillary leads in Rasmussen-she trailed by 7 in the GOP leaning poll just a few weeks ago-this maybe denotes a new trend, though certainly we need to see more. But they have a significant GOP house effect so it's notable.

In other news, we again see why Trump loves the poorly educated.

They're the only ones who vote for him.

UPDATE: More proof Trump's bounce is done-and maybe HRC"s is starting. She leads in PA by 9 points-wether with the third party candidates or without them.

In a one on one she's up to 50 percent. Even with Jill Stein and Garry Johnson in, she's at 46 percent.

This is a state that Trump needs if he has any prayer. Of course, only a perverse God would answer Trump's prayer. 

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