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Monday, July 25, 2016

FBI Launches Probe of DNC Hack

We argued in earlier piece today that GOP Congress should investigate the DNC leaks.

http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/07/shouldnt-there-be-congressional.html

Let's be honest though. This will happen when Hell freezes over as the GOP no doubt hopes there are more hacks coming-as Julian Assange has vowed.

But the FBI is on it, and rightfully so.

"The Federal Bureau of Investigation has launched a probe into the hacking of the Democratic National Committee's emails, the bureau announced Monday."

"The FBI is investigating a cyber intrusion involving the DNC and are working to determine the nature and scope of the matter," the agency said in a statement. "A compromise of this nature is something we take very seriously, and the FBI will continue to investigate and hold accountable those who pose a threat in cyberspace."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/fbi-dnc-226123#ixzz4FR7Tw44e

In other news, Jeff Weaver says the DNC leaks furor is beyond them.

"But as far as Sanders campaign manager Jeff Weaver is concerned, the party is united and Sanders is still backing Clinton, despite the emails confirming what the Vermont senator's team said it "knew" was taking place within the DNC."

"I think for everybody else in the world, this was really sort of bringing it out in black and white. But look, this happened. We knew it happened then," Weaver told CNN's "New Day." "Now is the time to go forward. The thing to do now is elect Hillary Clinton and defeat Donald Trump. That's what we have to do."

Wasserman Schultz "did the right thing" by resigning, Weaver continued, adding, "I think now is the time for party unity."

"I think she put the party ahead of herself. She stepped back. I think we're going to have a chance to turn the page," Weaver said. "We're going to have new leadership there. I think we're going to have a new direction in the party. I think we'll be really ready to fight in the fall."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/dnc-hacking-democratic-convention-226112#ixzz4FR7wXL7c

Bernie and his team are saying the right things. The worry is some of the hard core Bernie or Busters.

That was horrendous what they did to DWS this morning who doesn't deserve any of it.

Still, I'm glad that Julian Castro will take over after November as he will have full time to devote to it. Part of DWS's trouble has been that she was trying to do two big jobs at once.

As for the polls, and whether Trump got a bounce, this is not totally clear yet.

CNN shows him with a small lead now.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/25/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-poll/

But CBS shows a different story.

"In contrast to CNN, a new CBS poll finds zero bounce for Trump: The two are tied at 42-42 among registered voters nationally, with each gaining two points."

"Did we mention that you should stick to the polling averages?"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/07/25/this-is-the-single-most-depressing-finding-in-todays-polls-showing-trump-ahead/

So, stick to the averages, and let's see where it is after Dem convention.

Natalie Jackson at Huffington Post:

"TRUMP GAINS ON CLINTON IN NEW NATIONAL POLLS - New polls released Monday morning by CNN/ORC, Morning Consult and CBS show Donald Trump receiving a post convention bump that gives him a slight edge on Hillary Clinton. The CNN poll has the biggest shift: A mid-June CNN poll had Clinton up by 7 points, and now Trump is up by 3 points. Morning Consult shows a smaller increase, with Trump leading by 4 points now compared to a 2-point Clinton lead in their July 14-16 poll. CBS shows the race essentially unchanged. Their last poll with the New York Times from July 8-12 showed the race tied. While CBS reports the race as tied in their most recent poll, HuffPost Pollster reports the question that includes respondents who are undecided but lean toward a candidate, which shows Trump up by one point."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-post-convention-poll-bump_us_5796075ae4b01180b52f769d

But it's not time to panic. We still have the Dem convention. Mid August we'll have better idea.

"But don’t get too excited about post-convention polls - HuffPollster: “Following the polls closely immediately after each convention is only good for one thing: Trying to gauge how much of a bump the candidate got. These polls don’t mean that the race, as a whole, has shifted substantially ― especially not before both conventions have taken place. Conventions have often resulted in small to medium polling bumps for the candidate whose party just convened. The gatherings typically help unify the parties, particularly if there were divisive primaries ― which both Democrats and Republicans experienced this year. They also usually correspond to vice presidential candidate announcements, which might (or might not) help the candidate.” [HuffPost]"

"Another option is to ignore the polls until the convention volatility fades - Josh Katz and Kevin Quealy: “History suggests that in the short periods after the conventions, the polling average can often move away from the final result, not toward it. That’s because polls taken in the middle of the convention are often unreliable: Gains made by the party’s nominee can often be short-lived. One approach is to ignore the polls during this tricky period. Our presidential forecast, which currently gives Hillary Clinton a 74 percent chance to win, does something different: It imposes a small penalty on polls taken when a candidate might be receiving a convention bounce. This penalty, based on conventions since 1980, fades out over the next few weeks.” [NYT]"

Nate Silver:

CLINTON still leads in our polls-plus model, which adjusts for Trump's convention bounce. http://53eig.ht/2934XS8

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/757559058924699648


UPDATE: I love Scott Sumner again after his post about Trump being worse than Hitler. 

http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/07/putins-pawn-how-trump-is-worse-than.html

Now I love Ben Jealous again. 

"If you don't think Nader's Green Party Campaign for #POTUS helped W win FL, please use a calculator when you do your homework. #NeverTrump"

https://twitter.com/BenJealous/status/756376473028599808

7 comments:

  1. Bernie should go outside and address the protesters, and slap them upside the head and good! Do they want PUTIN and his bottom boy trump to be running things???

    Hillary: moderate democrat, who under pressure from Sanders and his supporters has moved significantly to the left. She will work within the law to get things done.

    Trump: last president you'll ever have.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Ben Jealous sort of doing that on Twitter and he's an important Berner voice.

    http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/07/ben-jealous-to-green-party-voters-use.html

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  3. BTW, I've always been a fan of DWS, and I think it's a shame that she was forced out, however I'm glad she did bow out because it was just going to be more of a distraction to have her there than not.

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  4. Jennifer has been hammering Trump this morning, but she only now has really turned her attention fully to the PUTIN-trump "special relationship."

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2016/07/25/why-the-democratic-party-cyberhack-matters/

    ReplyDelete
  5. Replies
    1. A caption isn't required, but if I'd add one, it'd be:

      PUTIN➞trump: a "special" relationship.

      Delete