Saturday, July 30, 2016

In Rabba Research Poll Hillary Clinton Gets a 10 Point Convention Bounce

To be sure, all the usual caveats apply. It's just one poll. We'll have a much better idea with polls released starting on Monday.

But it is the first poll conducted totally DNC and it's certainly encouraging.


7/12: Clinton +12.

7/23: Clinton +5.

Now: Clinton +15. …

"Inside new RABA poll: Clinton w/ massive 22-point lead with women, gets 14% of GOP voters, & 8-point lead w/ indies."

. …

Again, it's about averages. This poll does seem to have a Hillary house effect. It tends to show Hillary at the high end in her numbers.

On July 12 her lead in the averages was more like 3 to 4 percent. And after the RNC it was a tied race in averages.

Still, it's about the trend. RABA showed a clear 7 point Trump RNC bounce and now a 10 point DNC bounce for Hillary.

Unless this poll is completely worthless it suggests Hillary got a significant bounce.

Again, it's about the averages. So if she is +10 in Rabba, to believe she really got no bounce you'd need to see her with a -10 bounce in the next poll which I think it's fair to say we won't see.

Nate Silver says it's a relatively new pollster but no reason not to trust it:

"They're new-ish so don't know much about em. They polled the Missouri primary and did fine; hadn't heard of them before that."

"Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has opened a significant lead over Republican nominee Donald Trump, now leading him by 15 points, according to a new online nationwide survey conducted on Friday, July 29th by RABA Research, a bipartisan polling firm."

"Among likely voters, Clinton garners 46% support to Trump’s 31%. Libertarian Gary Johnson now captures 7% of the vote, while Jill Stein sits at 2%."

A RABA Research poll conducted the day after the Republican convention showed a tighter race, with Clinton at 39% and Trump at 34%. Johnson was at 8% in that survey, while Stein found 3% support.

What this shows is that the main part of the bounce is pro Hillary. Trump was already only at 34% before the DNC.

The big move is towards Hillary whose support jumped by 7 percent. This was what the Dems aimed for. Trump sort of discredits himself with everything he says and does.

Most of Hillary' ads just show Trump taking. Just showing him saying what he says.

So the important objective was reintroducing her to those who thought they knew her based on GOP lies that the media has credulously repeated.

Again, the key is not to get stuck on is the house effect. The poll clearly seems to be among the most optimistic of Hillary's lead. What matters is the bounce. It shows Trump with a 7 point RNC bounce then HRC with a 10 point DNC bounce, leaving her in better shape than when the conventions started.

Now on Monday we'll have to see if other polls show this. My guess is you will see this broad trend towards her and you might start to see those trustworthy numbers rise.

A large Philly crowd of 7.500 cheered a man who screamed 'We trust Hillary."

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