The GOP Estalbishment is Dreaming Again: Jeb's 'He Kept Us Safe' is Political Disaster

The GOP establishment is kidding itself if it thinks this is the smoking gun that will be Trump going too far. Nothing until now has led to a backlash against Trump and this won't either. To the contrary it is an albatross around Jeb's neck for him to keep defending his brother this way.

They are trying to convince themselves that Trump is going to lose supporters on this.

Republican strategists, especially those who were close to George Bush’s administration, believe Trump’s attacks will backfire.

“It is a huge miscalculation, on Donald Trump’s part, of the appetite of Republican primary voters, to believe that somehow [Bush] is to blame for 9/11,” said Katie Packer Gage, who directed advertising for George Bush’s reelection campaign. “To Republican primary voters, it’s simple: He kept us safe because he was tough, he had an immediate response."

"Ari Fleischer, who was the White House press secretary when the 9/11 attacks occurred, also thinks Trump is making a mistake: “It’s very odd to run in a Republican primary and use the rhetoric of Hillary Clinton and John Kerry, but that’s what Donald Trump just did,” Fleischer said in an interview. “Donald Trump says odd things, and Donald Trump is often wrong. He’s seldom conservative, but he’s often controversial.”

"Prior to the Trump assault, the “he kept us safe” refrain seemed like it could be a winning slogan. The line has earned Jeb Bush applause from debateaudiences, the support of some of his competitors and the backing of a majority of Republicans, who agreed that his brother deserved credit because the country hadn’t experienced another Sept. 11."

“On Sept. 12, the CIA informed the president directly, there will be a second wave — not may, there will be,” Fleischer said. “Much of the world was hit by massive domestic terrorism by radical Islamists, but the United States wasn’t, and that’s what gave rise to this expression that ‘he kept us safe.’ ”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/did-george-w-bush-keep-us-safe-trump-raises-question-to-attack-jeb/2015/10/18/e84f3e18-e72a-4fd4-9548-64ce35049ec1_story.html

This is so much wrong with the whole He kept us safe, meme. Fleischer's claim that there's something W did that kept us safe after the attack is based on the assumption that terrorist attacks on US soil are much more common than they in fact are. The statistical odds are that America 'would have been safe' no matter who had been President after 9/11.

It's also extreme hypocrisy to assign no responsibility to W for 9/11 but assign tons of responsibility for Obama-and since the election started, for Hillary Clinton-for Benghazi.

But this is an issue that is so hot that the specifics don't matter so much as the overall narrative. For Jeb to have to defend his brother is just a political disaster whatever the exact merits of a particular question. W's presidency is not remembered fondly by most Americans and it s just dreadful for Jeb to be defending it this way.

It sounds insular-like one member of the monarchy defending another-and clueless as this is not at all how most Americans remember his brother's presidency.

The economists have something they call opportunity cost which is where an course of action is compared not just on its own merits but with what course of action that could have been taken if this actual course wasn't.

There is the saying If you're explaining, you're losing which is usually very widely true in politics. If you are defending yourself, you aren't on the attack against your opponent or fleshing out your own positive agenda for the voters. So it's doubly a loser for you.

For Jeb to defend his brother is double the opportunity cost taht would come from explaining something else-anything else. For him to get bogged down in this is the worst possible development for him.

But Trump must see there's nothing but upside for him to continue to pursue it. Tom Brown left me a comment on the reaction of the establishment vs. the Tea Party pundits.

"I did a little snooping around yesterday and found that the two uber Trumpers in the right wing media-sphere (that I'm aware of) are Laura Ingraham and Ann Coulter: the belligerent blondes. Breitbart (the website) is definitely pro-Trump too as a whole. I don't know about Mark Levin. Michael Savage is in there too supposedly (on Trump's side). I think Palin's a fan as well. Rush and Hannity are not as committed, but are generally pro-Trump. Glenn Beck, Michelle Malkin, Erick Erickson and the a host of others (more establishment types: George Will, WSJ, Jennifer Rubin, etc) are definitely anti-Trump."

"Strange that Malkin hasn't mentioned Trump in months though... almost like she doesn't want to highlight where she diverges from the right wing sister-hood. About three or four month's back she mentioned he was an "ass clown" but nothing since that I'm aware of. Beck and Erickson are more forcefully anti-Trump (RedState was accusing Trump of being a "soft Truther" a day or two ago)."

http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/10/trump-is-trolling-jeb-again-i-would.html?showComment=1445272168675#c775182682313207314

Here is Brietbart's reaction-it is favorable to Trump.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/10/18/flashback-jeb-bush-admitted-leaky-immigration-led-911/

I think Trump covered his own ass here by blaming W's supposedly weak immigration policy for 9/11. I left this comment for Tom:

"I don't think Trump loses Coulter or anyone else. As you said her single issue now is immigration-and Trump is claiming that W being soft on immigration is what made 9/11 happen. "

"It's a win-win for him and a lose-lose for Jeb. "

"If I were an anti Jeb Super PAC-if I had the money I'd already be one-I'd actually have an ad that just kept repeating Jeb's words over and over again 'He kept us safe' , 'He kept us safe' 'He kept us safe'

"With the emphasis on the word safe. Then you'd synchronize Jeb's own words with some images. I guess footage of the buildings being hit on 9/11 would be overdone-maybe some would feel that is disrespectful to the victims and their families-though I could see Trump doing an ad like that. "

"But you could have other images of the lost soldiers in Iraq after no WMDs are found and even footage of Katrina and Kayne West declaring 'W cares nothing for black people'

"We could discuss the best images but you have to replay that 'He kept us safe' line as often as possible. It is political gold for the opposition. "

"See if Trump uses it. Maybe he'll go over that line on using the actual 9/11 attacks!"

He kept us safe is the last slogan Jeb needs. Any anti Trump Super PAC ought to already be putting together the collage for the ad.