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Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Paul Ryan is not a Stupid Man

That's the one take away I have from his comments over the last week about him taking the job. He gets that the job isn't worth it if it means the Freedom Caucus holds him hostage the way it did Boehner.

"One Ryan confidant says he won’t make any concessions to the House Freedom Caucus: “otherwise you’ve sold yourself to them from the very beginning, and set yourself up for failure.” And remember, the Freedom Fraud Caucus is basically running a scam in which they are demanding the GOP leadership employ tactics they know will fail."
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/10/paul-ryan-again-showing-he-may-be-too.html

So he is coming in with the right attitude. He gets the risks. I do think that if he were to be able to run the House as he sees fit, it would be an improvement over Boehner even. The question is how will he fare any better than Boehner if he makes it clear he wants to govern even if this means also working with Democrats?

Well, there may well be no way, but he shows that he's smart by his demands he unveiled last night:

"So Paul Ryan has now told fellow House Republicans that he is open to running for Speaker, provided that warring factions inside the party agree to unite behind him. Ryan says that “we have become the problem,” and while it’s not quite clear who he is talking about there, it seems plain enough that Ryan knows that the chaos in GOP ranks is increasingly to blame for Washington dysfunction."

"Ryan says he’s going to demand various “conditions” that might somehow make it easier to “unify” Republicans or make the chaos easier to manage. Among them, the Post reports:"

"He told colleagues he would seek to change the rule allowing a simple majority of the House to remove a sitting speaker. The threat of such a vote helped hasten Boehner’s departure."

"If I understand this right, it appears to mean that Ryan is looking to protect himself from the blowback and potential efforts to remove him that may be unleashed once he compromises with Democrats. In other words, it looks like he might already know that he will have to get conservatives very angry in order to get things done. Or, to put it another way, Ryan seems to know he can’t unify House Republicans on policy, and thus that his best hope is to manage the fallout that will result from his coming sellout. Good luck, Paul Ryan. You’re going to need it."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2015/10/21/morning-plum-good-luck-paul-ryan-youre-gonna-need-it/

As I read this, if Ryan gets his rule change then they can't cut him off at the knees after he raises the debt ceiling and funds the government with Democratic votes. This is all we really expect from the GOP House anyway.

If the House does anything beyond that it's pure unexpected gravy.

Meanwhile. Harry Reid is again having some fun-like the time he said he talked to a friend who said Mitt hadn't paid taxes in 10 years. I still love Harry for that moment. Here he is having some more fun by coming out and endorsing Paul Ryan. You go Harry! You will be missed.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/reid-paul-ryan-endorsement

What is Harry up to? Maybe, he's angling for the Dems to get to pick the next Speaker!

http://www.dailynewsbin.com/opinion/harry-reid-sabotages-paul-ryan-by-endorsing-him-for-speaker-of-the-house/22868/

Josh Marshall on what Paul Ryan is trying to do.

"You see the news in our feature story that Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) just sort ofannounced his candidacy for the Speakership. We'll have more reported details shortly. But the gist is he's going to try to turn the dynamic of the GOP caucus on its head. I emphasize, try."

"Ryan is saying he'll accept the Speakership if all the major factions agree to his terms. So he's trying to make it something he accepts rather than runs for, as it were. Everyone has to agree to his terms rather than getting each faction's buy-in by agreeing to their terms and then trying to make all those hopelessly conflicting demands function together."

"House Republicans seem so desperate for Ryan at this point that I think there's a good chance he can do it on the front end. It seems decidedly more dubious that he can make it work over time. The real division is between those who want traditional legislative practice and those who embrace government by shutdown. It's not clear to me that division has been settled or submerged. But we'll see."

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/a-fascinating-experiment

Krugman always gives Ryan a hard time of course for his faux policy wonkery. True, but Ryan may well be a pretty good House Speaker at least GOP 2015 terms.

I'm with Marshall in doubting he can make it work over time. But again, all we need is to fund the government and raise the debt ceiling before the November, 2016 election.

This is all you can expect from today's GOP House.

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