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Thursday, October 29, 2015

Sorry Beltway Pundits, but Trump's Night Was Fine

It's become the ritual of every post debate prognosis includes a claim that Trump is done. Politico argues that he was a 'bit player.'

The incredible shrinking Trump

The usually blustery billionaire offered a downright demure performance at the third GOP debate."

Donald Trump, a man of many distinctions, has racked up another one — the incredible shrinking candidate.

The usually boastful businessman only bothered to insult one of his Republican rivals during the third GOP debate. He fell from first in speaking time to the bottom half of the pack. He wasn’t even the most-mentioned candidate on Facebook.

"Trump may have limited the length of the third Republican debate — CNBC disputes his claim that he forced the network to cap it at two hours — but the most notable shrinkage on Wednesday night was in his own share of the action."

"With Trump slipping in the polls in Iowa and nationally, the moderators and the other candidates paid him scant attention. Trump, meanwhile, held back, exercising a restraint that befits a besieged front-runner but that also raises questions about his ability to defend a lead that he had maintained by keeping himself at the center of the conversation"

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/debate-donald-trump-shrinkage-2016-215333#ixzz3pyhVa8dP

I just get the sense that pundits like this are gong to claim Trump is in trouble no matter how things went. I mean what would the pundits need to see to not make this claim?

To claim that Trump is slipping in the national polls is certainly out on a limb. There was one poll nationally-as opposed to Iowa-that shows him slipping so far. We'll see if there are more that show this but at this point it's premature to say he's slipping nationally.

Trump's campaign has always offended them as it kind of calls out their whole meme that both parties are roughly equal in terms of fairness and coherence, that there are reasonable people in both parties, etc.

They are uncomfortable speaking of today's GOP as an outlier or dysfunctional. Trump's positions are no more ridiculous than any of the other candidates but the Betlway has tried hard to make this claim.

I agree they are all ridiculous to be sure, but the Beltway press has mostly focused just on Trump.

I think Trump did pretty well last night. He is a counterpuncher. Kasich was the only one who took a swing at him which is why he was the only one who got hit.

Moderator John Harwood also took a swing on him to start the debate by claiming attacking Trump as a comic book candidacy.

Trump hit him back too and when Harwood asked a leading question to Huckabee that was meant to get him to claim Trump lacks the moral authority to be President Huck didn't take the bait.

Trump's takedown of Kasich though was just epic. Just a couple of words to shut him down: Fracking and Lehman Brothers.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/10/kasich-comes-in-frisky-but-trump-tars.html

Further more, Trump was shrewd in embracing Ben Carson on stage. When he went after Kaisch on Lehman Brothers he spoke of how Lehman's fall could have destroyed 'Me and Ben.'

Towards the end of the debate, Trump declared that he and Ben deserved credit for shortening the debate. John Harwood was again the foil as he claimed implausibly that the debate was always going to be only two hours.

Now Ben Carson is demanding a new format for future debates that his and Trump's campaign are going to work on.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/after-cnbc-debacle-carson-camp-vows-revolt-over-debates/article/2575209

I think Ben White put it best in a tweet. The RNC can demonize the moderators all it wants but there are just too many candidates.

https://twitter.com/morningmoneyben

9 comments:

  1. Regarding Carson's demands that the debates be restructured, I found these two quotes:

    "There's not enough time to talk about your plans..."

    "Bennett noted that the Carson and Trump campaigns forced CNBC to shorten the debate"

    Hmmm, is this a case of (as Jason pointed out in a recent post) A < B, B < C and C < A?

    I.e. mob "logic?" Are the candidates becoming personifications of the irrational emergent "representative agent" of the mob?

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    1. LOL. In reality Ben White got it right: there are just too many frigging candidates for a debate that is a Godly amount of time.

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  2. O/T: I love it when religious fundamentalists criticize something else as being a "religion." It's as if they know somewhere deep down that there is no greater insult...
    http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2015/10/28/ted-cruz-climate-change-is-not-science-its-religion/

    More mob logic I guess.

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  3. Yes, he's fine with the GOP electorate. Still, he got caught lying. A badge of honor with the electorate perhaps? He stands up and fights against "liberal" facts? Lol

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  4. You mean Carson got caught? Well so did Rubio, so has Fiorina again been caught. This is a GOP debate.

    Unlike many pundits I'm never shocked or even a little surprised when anyone in it

    1. Lies

    2. Says things that are irrational or illogical and is not called on it.

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    1. Carson got caught, but Trump too. The statement he denied about H1 visas is right there on his own website. And those are far from the only ones. There's lots of "fact checking the debate" type articles up right now that go through the litany from pretty much all the candidates.

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  5. All I ask of a GOP debate is that it be entertaining-and damaging to the party's actual general election interests.

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    1. There's always a danger though that if the lies they spew go unchallenged by the moderators (if nobody else) that the low-information voters will come to accept them as the truth. And there are a LOT of low information voters I bet.

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    2. But I notice Tom you're focusing on the lies of Trump and Carson. I'm more interested in the lies of Rubio as he's the establishment candidate and even now is probably something of the favorite.

      Look at all the lies he told about his personal debt, tax plan and indeed Hillary's Benghazi testimony.

      https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2015/10/30/marco-rubios-claim-that-hillary-lied-about-benghazi-debunked/

      I notice that fact checkers only worry about Trump and Carson which is very low hanging fruit.

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