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Thursday, October 15, 2015

Is Jeb Bush Becoming a Zombie Candidate?

Bruce Bartlett has a tweet where he says yes. Paranthetically I would very much recommend Bartlett's Twitter age to you if you have never perused it. He was once a economic adviser to Reagan who has become thoroughly disillusioned with his own party.

Jeb Bush is officially a zombie candidate--dead politically but still running."

https://twitter.com/BruceBartlett

He links to a piece that tracts the trajectory of Jeb's falling poll numbers.

https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/10/14/whats-happened-jeb-bush/

Well, here is another story that would also seem to suggest this. It does not describe a campaign doing well:
Jeb cuts back

Eager to show cost consciousness, the Bush campaign's "high life has ended."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/jeb-bush-2016-campaign-finances-214730#ixzz3odrOSV2J

Well, why has Jeb had to cut back? It can only be because he hasn't been doing so well raising money lately-due to his weak poll numbers.

“The high life has ended,” said one Florida operative familiar with the campaign’s operation."

“They’re running a more modest operation in the last two weeks, and the traveling party has definitely shrunk.”

"Although the Bush campaign has yet to release its fundraising numbers from the third quarter ahead of Thursday’s deadline, the belt-tightening has already begun, at least around the margins with regard to travel."

"Conceived as a fundraising juggernaut that would “shock and awe” opponents into oblivion, Bush's campaign is suddenly struggling to raise hard dollars and increasingly economizing — not because he’s out of money, but to convince nervous donors, who are about to get their first look at his campaign's burn rate, that he's not wasting it. "

“At a certain point, we want to see a bang for the buck. We’re spending the bucks — and we’re seeing no bang,” a longtime Bush Republican said.

"Bush is stuck at 7 percent in an average of national polls. He’s at close to 9 percent in New Hampshire, putting him in sixth place in the early state he most needs to win. Although his poll standing isn’t much better, Marco Rubio is starting to catch the eye of deep-pocketed establishment donors impressed by his leaner operation and unique appeal as a candidate."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/jeb-bush-2016-campaign-finances-214730#ixzz3odsY3pou

"If Jeb wasn't polling so badly of course this wouldn't be a topic of conversation. The Beltway has been determined that this will end up going to Jeb or more lately Rubio though as Politico notes Rubio isn't doing much better."

"He's trying to put a positive spin on this but the donors are getting impatient and don''t want to see extravagance."

"Bush’s campaign brushes off the current polls as insignificant in the scheme of the larger nomination fight. Bush himself often reminds reporters and concerned supporters that the primary is a “long haul.” But some donors are running out of patience."

"Pete Rummell, a donor and longtime supporter of Bush whom the former governor once appointed to the board that oversees Florida’s universities, couldn't help but reply to a chain email from a number of friends wishing him a happy birthday Tuesday morning with a lament."

“I am worried about Jeb," he wrote.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/jeb-bush-2016-campaign-finances-214730#ixzz3odwTrLqJ

Jeb has been increasing advertising in NH which he needs badly and has had 60% of the ads there the last few weeks. During this period Real Clear Politics shows his average numbers fell from 9% to 8.7%. 

Meanwhile the poll leaders-Trump and Ben Carson-aren't advertising at all. Hmm.

Maybe Jeb they're just not that into you.


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