The Returns are in and the Serious Pundits are Wrong about GOP Debate

You will never go broke underestimating them. What has been an article of faith after every GOP debate is that Trump is done, he's over with, his decline has started. And every time this has been shown to be wrong.

After Wednesday night, here was a pretty representative example of the consensus from a Yglesias review of the debate that was overall pretty good but totally wrong on Trump.

"The main losers in that dynamic were once-upon-a-time frontrunners Jeb Bush and Donald Trump who, for different reasons, were unable to feast at the table of anti-moderator zingers."

http://www.vox.com/2015/10/28/9633612/cnbc-republican-debate-explained

No argument with Jeb but Trump didn't lose the debate by any stretch. And he didn't need to get in on the anti-moderator zingers.

He did get in a few good zingers of his own-most notably Kasich who he shutdown for the night.

http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/10/kasich-comes-in-frisky-but-trump-tars.html

As for the anti-moderator frenzy, he didn't have to as other candidates did so on his behalf. First Cruz called out John Harwood for his comic book campaign jibe on his behalf and then Mike Huckabee refused to question Trump's 'moral authority' to be President.

Huck said he's not going to give Trump more time and then he pointed to his Trump hat he wore for the night.

I've gone through this before that Trump was fine.

http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/10/sorry-beltway-pundits-but-trumps-night.html

It's obvious that the Beltway just wants to rule out Trump no matter the facts. They say that he's been breaking the laws of gravity-and they have seen it as their job to reimpose those laws.

I think that was the deeper meaning of Harwood's zinger at Trump  about 'Your tax plan has as good a chance of not exploding the deficit as you have of flapping your arms and flying off that podium.'

There has not been the liberal bias the GOP is now claiming-to the contrary my reading of the situation has been rather the media has been trying to assist the GOP by putting Trump/Carson back in their place.

That 'flap your wings' jibe is clearly a tell that in Harwood's mind like many of the Very, Serious pundits the laws of gravity need to be reimposed and it's their job to do that.

Anyway the verdict is in and: big surprise, Trump was not a debate loser and Rubio was not the big winner: this honor goes to Ted Cruz.

Overall, 24% think he won, 20% choose Rubio, Trump is next with 17%, and 15% choose Carson.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-carson-trump-lead-gop-field-n454831?cid=sm_twitter_feed_politics

Oops.

I should also note that these numbers correlate with who is leading the polls and that analysis from Team Rubio that argued that the candidates who have a real shot at winning the nomination are: Rubio, Cruz, Trump, and Carson.

http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/10/rubios-team-handicaps-primary.html

So these Rubio prognostications are in line with reality unlike the Very Serious Pundits.

Yes, usually the party decides but it may really be different this time.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/08/maybe-this-time-really-is-different/401900/

Regarding Trump, while the pundits are so eager to reimpose the laws of political gravity they aren't willing to fairly apply them to him. After all, standard primary wisdom is that when you are the frontrunner you should take it easy-you don't have to engage as they are chasing you.

It's better to step back and not punch down as this elevates your target. Yet Politico claimed that:

"The usually boastful businessman only bothered to insult one of his Republican rivals during the third GOP debate. He fell from first in speaking time to the bottom half of the pack. He wasn’t even the most-mentioned candidate on Facebook."

"With Trump slipping in the polls in Iowa and nationally, the moderators and the other candidates paid him scant attention. Trump, meanwhile, held back, exercising a restraint that befits a besieged front-runner but that also raises questions about his ability to defend a lead that he had maintained by keeping himself at the center of the conversation""

http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/10/sorry-beltway-pundits-but-trumps-night.html

First of all there's no proof that he is slipping. It's more a story that Carson has rallied than that he's fallen. He's not besieged though clearly Politico wishes it were so.

But restraint is the way a front runner is supposed to act according to conventional wisdom.

Again he had his moments like with Kasich but overall I think he did what he needed to do.