Well like Keynes said of the market, what matters is not just my opinion but my opinion of what the GOP establishment and base thought-which is usually not the same thing.
The consensus is that Jeb bombed.
Bush walks into Rubio's trap
For Jeb’s supporters, it was a night of crushing disappointment.
"Banging on the CNBC production team’s door halfway through the debate, campaign manager Danny Diaz reamed the debate host over how little time Bush was getting. In the end, the one-time front-runner scored less than seven minutes, worse than almost every other candidate"
"Banging on the CNBC production team’s door halfway through the debate, campaign manager Danny Diaz reamed the debate host over how little time Bush was getting. In the end, the one-time front-runner scored less than seven minutes, worse than almost every other candidate"
"Bush’s bad night benefitted Marco Rubio most. Indeed, Bush donors were quick to complain about what they saw as a bad strategic decision to take on the junior Floridian."
“Marco is a [expletive] Jedi Master,” one distraught Florida donor said. “Hopefully these idiots learn not to [expletive] with him anymore. Not necessary.”
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/bush-walks-into-rubios-trap-215337#ixzz3pxJWQ62b
See the funny thing is I thought Jeb had done pretty good in going after Rubio there. It was a legitimate issue that everyone had been talking about-a Florida paper that same day had demanded Rubio resign.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/10/rubio-on-not-doing-his-senate-job-no.html
So that was my own thought. But what I did notice right away is that Rubio clealry seemed to be winning the Keynesian beauty contest aspect as the crowd cheered Rubio's response wildly.
On its own terms I didn't think much of Rubio's response: all it came down to was saying it missing the Senate was good enough for John McCain it was good enough for himself.
I guess that was sort of a ding when he went on to say 'I know what's going on here. You've been told this is the way to get back in the race.'
UPDATE: I should also note that Rubio never did answer John Harwood's question: Does he hate his Senate job?
At the time I didn't see that as a big deal, but in retrospect I do see that with that response and Jeb having no answer to this rather pointed response was not the way to go.
A candidate with fight has to push back a little more but Jeb kind of wilted at that point I guess.
Josh Marshall I see also had this same reaction: he didn't see Rubio as doing all that well but the consensus in the crowd and among the pundits post debate clearly said different.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/10/so-who-won-tonights-gop-debatea.html
Jeb clearly had a pretty bad debate if Nate Silver is now arguing that Jeb may be in big trouble. After all, Nate is all about being skeptical of narratives. If he's saying this, it's notable.
ttps://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/jeb-bush-cnbc-republican-debate/?ex_cid=538twitter
I think the most worrying aspect for Jeb is simply that as Nate says, the best interests of the GOP establishment at this point may just be kicking the Governor to the curb.
"In the insurgent lane, Ted Cruz, a candidate whose chances were already on the upswing, probably helped himself during the debate. It’s possible that Cruz’s gains will come at Donald Trump’s expense, although I personally thought Trump did fine2 and that if Cruz gains in the polls, it could come from Ben Carson or some other candidate instead."
"But whether it’s Cruz or Trump or Carson ahead, the Republican establishment can’t wait that much longer to get its act together. And the most expedient way to do that may be to kick Bush to the curb."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/jeb-bush-cnbc-republican-debate/
The consensus is that Jeb bombed.
Bush walks into Rubio's trap
For Jeb’s supporters, it was a night of crushing disappointment.
"Banging on the CNBC production team’s door halfway through the debate, campaign manager Danny Diaz reamed the debate host over how little time Bush was getting. In the end, the one-time front-runner scored less than seven minutes, worse than almost every other candidate"
"Banging on the CNBC production team’s door halfway through the debate, campaign manager Danny Diaz reamed the debate host over how little time Bush was getting. In the end, the one-time front-runner scored less than seven minutes, worse than almost every other candidate"
"Bush’s bad night benefitted Marco Rubio most. Indeed, Bush donors were quick to complain about what they saw as a bad strategic decision to take on the junior Floridian."
“Marco is a [expletive] Jedi Master,” one distraught Florida donor said. “Hopefully these idiots learn not to [expletive] with him anymore. Not necessary.”
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/bush-walks-into-rubios-trap-215337#ixzz3pxJWQ62b
See the funny thing is I thought Jeb had done pretty good in going after Rubio there. It was a legitimate issue that everyone had been talking about-a Florida paper that same day had demanded Rubio resign.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/10/rubio-on-not-doing-his-senate-job-no.html
So that was my own thought. But what I did notice right away is that Rubio clealry seemed to be winning the Keynesian beauty contest aspect as the crowd cheered Rubio's response wildly.
On its own terms I didn't think much of Rubio's response: all it came down to was saying it missing the Senate was good enough for John McCain it was good enough for himself.
I guess that was sort of a ding when he went on to say 'I know what's going on here. You've been told this is the way to get back in the race.'
UPDATE: I should also note that Rubio never did answer John Harwood's question: Does he hate his Senate job?
At the time I didn't see that as a big deal, but in retrospect I do see that with that response and Jeb having no answer to this rather pointed response was not the way to go.
A candidate with fight has to push back a little more but Jeb kind of wilted at that point I guess.
Josh Marshall I see also had this same reaction: he didn't see Rubio as doing all that well but the consensus in the crowd and among the pundits post debate clearly said different.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/10/so-who-won-tonights-gop-debatea.html
Jeb clearly had a pretty bad debate if Nate Silver is now arguing that Jeb may be in big trouble. After all, Nate is all about being skeptical of narratives. If he's saying this, it's notable.
ttps://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/jeb-bush-cnbc-republican-debate/?ex_cid=538twitter
I think the most worrying aspect for Jeb is simply that as Nate says, the best interests of the GOP establishment at this point may just be kicking the Governor to the curb.
"In the insurgent lane, Ted Cruz, a candidate whose chances were already on the upswing, probably helped himself during the debate. It’s possible that Cruz’s gains will come at Donald Trump’s expense, although I personally thought Trump did fine2 and that if Cruz gains in the polls, it could come from Ben Carson or some other candidate instead."
"But whether it’s Cruz or Trump or Carson ahead, the Republican establishment can’t wait that much longer to get its act together. And the most expedient way to do that may be to kick Bush to the curb."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/jeb-bush-cnbc-republican-debate/
If Jeb either is done or sees his numbers flag then it's almost certainly going to redound to Rubio's benefit-regardless of what the base itself really thought of his performance.
And this brings us to my own interpretation of last night. I felt that the fix was sort of in with the crowd. It's an establishment dominated crowd. In the last debate they were cheering Jeb but last night they seemed to have turned on him early.
My take is that they cheered for Rubio over Jeb in that exchange because this was the game plan coming in for precisely the reason that Nate suggests: they need to coalesce around one establishment candidate and Jeb is less and less looking like that guy.
I agree with Nate on Trump as well, he didn't wilt in my view as many pundits claimed. I thought that he was strong in his moments especially with Kasich.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/10/kasich-comes-in-frisky-but-trump-tars.html
He took out Kaisch's early wildeyed ranting about how these outsider candidates are making this a joke with just a couple words: fracking and Lehman Brothers.
One note is that Trump didn't dominate in time as he did in previous debates. This brings us to the other big story last night: the CNBC debate moderators. The sentiment of just about everyone is that they were as Trump would say a disaster.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/some-more-thoughts-on-the-debate
But this is a subject for me to take up in my next post. I have to pace myself. LOL.
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