GOP Establishment Thinks the Unthinkable: Could Trump Win the Nomination?

Every step of the way the GOP establishment and Beltway press has insisted that there's no way Trump could ever win.

He is just the flavor of the month like Herman Cain, Rick Perry, and Newt Gingrich is. Except that he has turned out to be the flavor of four months in a row and his consistent numbers recall Mitt Romney more than the various flavors for 2012.

"It began as whispers in hushed corners: Could it ever happen? And now, just three months from the Iowa caucuses, members of the Republican establishment are starting to give voice to an increasingly common belief that Donald Trump, once dismissed as joke, a carnival barker, and a circus freak, might very well win the nomination."


“Trump is a serious player for the nomination at this time,” says Ed Rollins, who served as the national campaign director for Reagan’s 1984 reelection and as campaign chairman for Mike Huckabee in 2008."


Rollins is not alone in his views. “Trump has sustained a lead for longer than there are days left” before voting begins in Iowa, says Steve Schmidt, who managed John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign. “For a long time,” Schmidt says, “you were talking to people in Washington, and there was a belief that there was an expiration date to this, as if there’s some secret group of people who have the ability to control the process.”


"But for Trump, a dip in the polls after the second debate that many predicted was the beginning of the end has arrested; and for nearly four months, he has remained at the top of the polls. Now, long-time GOP strategists who were expecting Trump’s act to wear thin a couple of months ago worry that he can’t be stopped, or at least that he has a significant chance of winning the nomination."

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/425750/gop-establishment-thinks-trump-could-win

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3350240/posts

Meanwhile the latest polls again show what they've shown since June-him in the lead with Ben Carson a close second:

"Donald Trump and Ben Carson now stand alone at the top of the Republican field, as Carly Fiorina's brief foray into the top tier of candidates seeking the GOP nomination for president appears to have ended, a new CNN/ORC poll finds."

"Fiorina has lost 11 points in the last month, declining from 15% support and second place to 4% and a tie for seventh place."

"At the same time, Carson has gained eight points and joins Trump as the only two candidates with support above 20%. As in early September before Fiorina's spike in support, Trump and Carson are the first choice candidate of about half of the potential Republican electorate. All told, nearly two-thirds of Republican voters choose Trump or Carson as either their first or second choice for the nomination."

http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/20/politics/poll-donald-trump-ben-carson-gop/

See now Fiorina's numbers are what a flash in the pan looks like. The political scientist John Sides talks about Discovery, Scrutiny, Decline and this is the clear trajectory of Fiorina who sunk like a stone after people began to see what a pathological liar she was and how abysmal her H-P record really was; she also failed to pay campaign staff in 2009 to boot.

http://www.amazon.com/Gamble-Choice-Chance-Presidential-Election/dp/0691163634/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&qid=1445348084&sr=8-3&keywords=john+sides

 Trump has not followed that trajectory at all. The media has tried repeatedly to knock him down by increasing critical scrutiny to no avail. 

"Overall, Trump's 27% leads the field, followed by Carson at 22%, both head and shoulders above their nearest competition. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio are tied for third place with 8% support each, followed by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul each at 5%. Fiorina, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz each have 4% support, while Ohio Gov. John Kasich is at 3%. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum stands at 2% and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham holds 1%."

As for where this goes we've had this talk before. One big hypothesis of mine is that we end up with a brokered convention or something like it as the GOP establishment plays every dirty trick to keep Trump off the ballot.

http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/10/dailynewsbin-games-out-who-will-win-gop.html?showComment=1445017664397#c427242615105067376

But what's great about Trump is he seems determined to win or not do everything in his power to bring down Jeb Bush. 

http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/10/trump-is-trolling-jeb-again-i-would.html

If the GOP does nominate Jeb Hillary will get to run against W's third term. Now the GOPers may sneer that they can run against Obama or her husband's third term but the difference is that neither Bill Clinton or President Obama are remembered nearly as negatively as W is. If you want to dispute that how do you explain why Bill campaigns publicly for Hillary and W will never campaign in public for Jeb?

"But the blunt fact of the matter is that Clinton was Secretary of State when Osama Bin Laden was killed, and George Bush was president when Osama Bin Laden killed 3,000 Americans. Is Jeb Bush betting that Clinton is somehow too good to run campaign ads contrasting the picture of her in the situation room while American troops killed Bin Laden with pictures of his brother reading My Pet Goat while 3,000 Americans lost their lives to Bin Laden? She might be. Outside groups that are supporting her might not be. Either way, that’s not a bet I’d take, especially if Republicans keep flinging the word “Benghazi” around to express their belief that Democrats—and women—are incapable of keeping us safe."

http://www.salon.com/2015/10/19/jeb_bush_is_completely_toast_donald_trump_and_jake_tapper_just_ended_all_white_house_dreams/