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Monday, October 26, 2015

As He Leaves Purgatory, Can John Boehner Successfully 'Clear the Barn?'

Talk about a man bites dog moment. There are reports on a plan by Boehner that is being negotiated with the Senate and White House to clear the table on the debt ceiling and funding the budget through the election next year.

"A deal between the White House and congressional leaders that would raise the debt ceiling and include two-year spending legislation could be announced as soon as Monday evening, anonymous sources told The Hill."

“Hopefully we’re able to announce something this evening,” an unnamed Senate source said, according to The Hill. The Hill report said that word of the deal had reached sources on the House GOP appropriation staff, and it would possibly be brought up at the Monday Republican leadership meeting.

"After The Hill report was published, CNN also reported some details of the potential deal. Sources told CNN the debt ceiling would be raised through the 2016 elections and the spending legislation will lift previous budget caps while including new cuts to counter the increases in spending."

"The New York Times also has reported on the deal discussions and said "officials briefed on the negotiations said the emerging accord would call for cuts in spending on Medicare and Social Security disability benefits."

"Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) has expressed a desire to "clean the barn" before his planned departure as speaker later this week. Such a deal would relieve his presumed successor Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) of the intense pressure he was facing balancing the demands a brinkmanship-loving House members and the series of high stakes deadlines facing Congress after the speaker elections, which are scheduled to wrap up by Thursday. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has said the debt ceiling will need to be raised by Nov. 3 to avoid a government default. A short-term spending bill passed last month is set to expire Dec. 11."

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/white-house-congress-budget-debt-ceiling4

Everything sounds good, of course, until the talk of unspecified cuts to spending on 'Medicare and Social Security disability cuts.'

There is an assurance that Nancy Pelosi will have to approve any final deal.

"A Democratic source suggested cuts to Medicare and Social Security disability benefits would not be large, or across the board. They would involve lengthening the appeals process when benefits are denied, and starting some sort of demonstration project to offset disability payments when beneficiaries earn other wages. Republicans have been complaining for years about the growth of disability benefits, and alleging rampant fraud in the programs (although advocates say such fraud is rare)."

"A Democratic official, hoping to assuage progressive concerns about the possibility of those cuts, told The Huffington Post that House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) would play a critical role in the talks. She "is in the room ... and very much at the table," said the official.

"Indeed, Pelosi on Friday talked up progress that leaders had made with in negotiations over the budget deal."

"According to another Democratic source, Pelosi's good opinion on the final deal would be necessary. The top House Democrat seems to have veto power on any agreement, the source said. "

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/white-house-congress-close-in-on-budget-deal_562e65dde4b00aa54a4a8447

Here's more:

"A cap on premium hikes for Medicare Part B beneficiaries — sought by House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) but initially rejected by the White House — would also be included. Medicare Part B covers doctors’ services, outpatient hospital services, and some home health care. The deal under discussion is also expected to address Social Security disability insurance, according to multiple sources."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/congress-budget-deal-white-house-215163#ixzz3phsNsCf5

Boehner's tenure has simply been a failure but he deserves credit if he is at least going to take this mess off the table for the next Speaker-presumably Ryan. 

 I also do agree with the suggestion by some that Ryan may prove to be a better Speaker than Boehner which in a way is not hard to do as his record is weak and he set himself up for failure as in the end his own members did to himself what they did to President Obama in the first couple of years. 

Live and die by the Jacobin sword. It's ironic that the allegedly conservative party has become such a hotbed of Jacobinism. 

So I totally agree that Ryan may be better:

Here's a crazy prediction: Paul Ryan might be a better Speaker than John Boehner was.

"So Paul Ryan is officially running for House Speaker. The question everyone is properly asking: Why will his Speakership be any different from that of John Boenher?"

"There’s a potential paradox in the answer to this question: While Ryan is undoubtedly more conservative than Boehner is, it’s possible he’ll go further than Boehner did in taking on the right wing."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2015/10/23/morning-plum-will-paul-ryan-take-on-the-right-wing-he-might-have-no-choice/

I find this plausible based on what Ryan himself is saying.

"Ryan is already moving to insulate himself from the sort of challenge from conservatives that Boehner faced, by seeking a rules change in which no single member can move to take out the Speaker. It’s not quite clear Ryan will get this change; he’s already agreed to delay discussions over it. But he clearly wants it. As Ryan puts it: “No matter who is speaker, they cannot be successful with this weapon pointed at them all the time.”

"To understand why Ryan might move to cooperate with Democrats even though it will anger the right, read Philip Klein’s balanced piece explaining what really drives Ryan. As Klein explains, Ryan is an ardent ideological believer in limited government, but he also recognizes that compromising one’s principles is sometimes necessary to enable the system to function. As Ryan put it in 2010: “You don’t get to take the vote you want in Congress. Sometimes you have to take votes that you don’t want to take, but they’re the best of the two choices.”

This even though he voted against raising the debt ceiling last time. He had the luxury of doing so then but knows as a leader he can't do that.

But if the stories are to be believed maybe Boehner will for once do the right thing and take the debt ceiling and funding the government off the table for Ryan.

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