Pages

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Democratic Debate Analysis: Bernie was Good; Hillary was Great

I agree with the take of many writers. I think Bernie did well but Hillary was better. The Bernie supporters will come out loving him even more but Hillary expanded herself.

In my last piece I suggested that she already sounded like a general election candidate last night. Even a Republican strategist called her performance an 'out of body experience.'

http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/10/hillarys-debate-last-night-was-almost.html

Like with the opening statements I thought she topped him right from the start. He gave his typical stump speech which kills with his supporters but this is about 20% of Dem primary voters.

He talked about the billionaire class, breaking up the banks, money in politics, stagnating wages, inequality. Mostly things that most Dems agree with as does Hillary. Except for breaking up the banks which is not a panacea.

http://www.nextnewdeal.net/rortybomb/structural-reform-beyond-glass-steagall

But then she gave her speech. In no way did she take a backseat to him but I think she showed two differences right away:

1. Her focus is more broad. Bernie's most passionate issues is breaking up the banks and money in politics. 

2. She gets much more into the weeds on policy. What I love about her is she's always about how do you get it done. Sure we can bitch or make demands. But how do get there. 

Josh Marshall says it well:

"As I noted last night, Hillary Clinton turned in a very solid debate performance. She was polished, turned away questions about what would seem to be her greatest vulnerabilities with confident and convincing pivots and more than anything else she had the feel of a candidate on the rebound. As I also wrote last night, the collapse of the 'Benghazi' committee and its associated nonsense came at the perfect moment for her. The debate would have had a very different feel to it had it been held six weeks ago.

We were running Insight polls overnight and this morning, gauging reactions to the debate and re-testing Democratic primary preference questions we've been running for the last four months. Based on those results I would expect you'll see Hillary get a substantial boost in the polls coming out of night's first debate."

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/hillary-s-big-big-night

As he says, Bernie had a good night-other than on gun control.

"First, Bernie Sanders had a really good night too. Just based on my own impression, if you're a fan of Bernie Sanders or someone whose politics make you at all amenable to being a fan of Bernie Sanders, you like what you saw. I saw some commentators say he started wobbly and then got stronger over the course of the night. I didn't see that. He seemed strong throughout. And our numbers show that his already high favorability numbers actually went up significantly. His unfavorables, already low, plummeted. Remember, even if you're a Democratic news junkie and know about Sanders and his campaign, there are many people for whom this was the first time seeing speak live for a substantial amount of time."

"Hillary's favorability numbers also went up, but not dramatically. Where you see the difference is on candidate preference where her support shot up a lot. She took some support from Sanders, but not much. Where she got most of her support was from people who'd been supporting Joe Biden (obviously not even in the race) and people who'd moved into the undecided column. Another way to put this is that she managed to consolidate her natural support which had frayed considerably over the months of pillorying over the email stories. As I said, she did very well and expect this performance to drive her poll numbers a lot."

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/hillary-s-big-big-night

Huffington Post also concurs that she was great-which has kind of been Bernie Nation for awhile:

"If the first Democratic primary debate of the 2016 cycle showed us anything, it is the value of experience -- experience in politics, certainly, but also experience in the art of political communication. Hillary Clinton won the debate hands down, with a performance so disciplined and effective that it should serve as a model for future candidates who are about to enter this rarefied arena. By understanding her mission, internalizing her message, and striking an appropriately commanding tone, Clinton ran circles around her opponents."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alan-schroeder/hillary-and-the-lost-boys_b_8290934.html

The writer, Alan Schroeder, then makes a great point about Bernie:

"As a performer Sanders's essential problem is that he functions at only a single setting. Everything he says is delivered with an equal sense of urgency, like a trumpet that blares the same few notes in an endless loop. As an orator Sanders tends to bark his messages, with accompanying upper-body gestures that make it appear he's conducting an imaginary orchestra. By no means did Sanders commit any major errors, and his supporters will find plenty to like in his performance. But this first debate in particular was an opportunity for him to expand that circle of support by drawing new voters to his cause. That goal he left unaccomplished."

Even on his big issue-hating on the banks-I thought she beat him. While he wants to simply 'break up the big banks' she points out that some of the biggest problems are banks that aren't that large and the shadow banking system.

"Sanders's fiery message is well received by the party's base, but not only is his delivery odd, the debate revealed real limits to his range of competency. He clearly stumbled through two efforts to state his (by no means wrong) view that Russia's aggression in Syria is an overreach that Vladimir Putin will regret. He's also clearly more comfortable discussing broad general themes like the superiority of the Nordic social model than delving into specifics. When Clinton got into the weeds of financial regulation policy to argue that actually her plan was tougher than Sanders's, he seemed almost shocked and then pivoted back to his demand to break up the largest banks without addressing Clinton's actual argument about shadow banks."

http://www.vox.com/2015/10/14/9528881/2015-democratic-debate-cnn









No comments:

Post a Comment